We are now only a handful of days away from the Big Game on Sunday. It is the biggest day of the year for the sports bettor…It’s like Christmas Eve for kids and St. Patrick’s Day for the Irish, all rolled into one.
And since I’ve been known to make a bet or two in my life, as well as handing you some big wins throughout the years, I’ll try to do so again. I’ll get this out of the way; while I will bet the game and the o/u, those are pedestrian for a game of this magnitude…they are the missionary position of sports gambling.
For the record, I like Seattle and the under. But, aside from that, I specifically like Seattle winning 23-13. You can buy an alternate line of Seattle -9.5pts at +190. If you want to get really frisky, bet the exact score…the odds are astronomical at 150/1.
In most Superbowls the QB of the winning team is the MVP. Sam Darnold is currently the favorite, mainly for being the QB of the team that is favored in the game. He is sitting at +115, while Drake Maye is +230.
I predict this will be the rare occurrence that neither QB will win the MVP. I tend to look for value whenever possible. In this case, there are two potential long shots, raising the trophy at the end of the game. I’ll take one player from each team.
For Seattle, I’ll take WR Rashid Shaheed, who’s sitting at +4500. Aside from potentially scoring a TD on offense, he is one of the premier punt returners in the game. With their defense, they should be able to cause the Pats to punt a handful of times. If Shaheed takes one to the house and adds a receiving TD, he will win the award.
If the Pats prevail, it may very well involve CB Marcus Jones. This season, he has two pick-6s, to go along with two punt returns, brought back for TDs. If he can get a pick 6 in this game or a scoop and score, and add a punt return for a TD, he will surely win the award. He’s an even bigger longshot, sitting at +10000.
Aside from individual props, like rushing or receiving yards, TDs are one of the more desirable props on the board. Again, what’s the fun of betting a favorite like Kenneth Walker or JSN? And aside from anytime TD, it’s as fun to bet “First TD”. To begin with, it’s a quick bet; you win, or you lose as soon as that first TD is scored…and the odds are much better.
While I believe Seattle will win, I’m taking a couple of Pats due to the lofty odds. I can envision Drake Maye calling his own number, as he did in Denver. He is currently 16/1 to score the game’s first TD. The nice thing about this pick, I can have my cake and eat it too. Maye can score the first TD to put the Pats up 7-0, and they can still very well lose this game. RB Rhamondre Stevenson is sitting at only 8/1 to score the first TD, while his counterpart TreVeyon Henderson is sitting at a whopping 27/1…Henderson actually has more TDs than Stevenson this season (9 to 7). At 3x the odds, I’ll gladly take Henderson.
For Seattle, I’m going to think a bit outside of the box and take their defense. While I just said I was taking Maye to score the first TD, I can also see a scenario where the nerves kick in and he either throws a pick that’s run back for a TD, or he puts the ball on the ground for a scoop and score. Seattle’s defense is sitting at 30/1.
Another interesting prop is the option to bet “squares”. You can pick the last digit of the final score. As I said, I like Seattle to win 23-13. The 3-3 square is currently 60/1. The beauty of this bet is that if the final is 23-3 or 33-23, you win. Conversely, if the Pats win 33-13 or 23-13, you win too.
As always, be smart and wager only money you can put at risk, and never bet scared money…and NEVER chase. Enjoy the game…Go Hawks!!!