Let’s face it, the NFL draft is a crap shoot. Even the experts and touts get it wrong. Usually, it’s easier to hit on a “can’t-miss” prospect in the first round, but even there, all teams can look back and find busts.
It’s one thing if a team gets it wrong with a lineman or someone in the secondary. It’s a far different story, with far more scrutiny, if a team gets it wrong at a skill position. There is no doubt that during this year’s draft, there will be back-slapping and fist-bumping by various “war rooms” throughout the league after selecting a player they hope will carry their offense for years to come.
Everyone will praise Chicago for taking Caleb Williams with the first overall pick when, in fact, their second pick (ninth overall) may mean more to their future. And we won’t even know right away if trading away Justin Fields, whom they drafted with the No. 11 pick in 2021, was the right move. That won’t be proven for a few years when we see if Williams pans out or becomes another in a long line of first-round QB busts.
Let’s take a closer look at that 2021 draft. It was supposed to be a strong draft for QBs. Trevor Lawrence was the headliner, followed by the “Morman Mahomes,” Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, the aforementioned Fields, and Mac Jones. Their rookie deals aren’t even up yet, and only Lawrence is still with the team that drafted him. Wilson was just traded to the Broncos along with a seventh-round pick, for a sixth-round pick … the Jets basically gave him away.
Fields is now in Pittsburgh, Lance is with the Cowboys, and Jones is in Jacksonville, backing up Lawrence. And even Lawrence himself hasn’t been the be-all and end-all for the Jags. He has won a playoff game but is still outside of most people’s top 10 lists.
This past season, it appears the best QB was the second one taken off the board: C.J. Stroud, who was taken second overall by the Texans after Bryce Young went to the Panthers. If we go back in history, we see example after example of surprising quarterbacks emerging to be the best in their draft class. Way back in 1983, Dan Marino was the sixth QB taken. And about 15 years later, Tom Brady was taken in the sixth round with pick 199.
In the 1994 draft, 30 years ago, Washington took Heath Shuler with the third overall pick. He was out of football by 1997. In 1998, the Chargers took Ryan Leaf second overall. The following season, the Bengals took Akili Smith with the third overall pick. He was 3-14 as a starter and out of the league after four years.
And the 2000s haven’t been much better for highly-drafted quarterbacks. The Lions took Joey Harrington with the third overall pick. The Raiders took Jamarcus Russell No. 1. He was 7-18 as a starter and out of the league after three seasons. And there are names like EJ Manuel, Marcus Mariota, and, maybe most infamously, Johnny Manziel.
Here is the point: this weekend will be fun, but he reality is that the only way to fairly grade a team’s NFL Draft is to wait five years down the line. It’s always fun to play the “What if the draft were held today?” game. If we look back through the years, some incredibly hyped prospects wouldn’t even get drafted, never mind with a first-round pick.
Last season I predicted that CJ Stroud would be the best QB to come out of the draft and that Bryce Young would be a bust. And although one season is too early to proclaim anyone a bust, I like my call after one season. Stroud appears to be the real deal, with a long and successful career ahead of him.
With that in mind, there are six QBs in this draft who could very well all be selected in the first round, and here are my rankings. In five years, when we look back at this year’s crop of QBs, this is how I think they will be ranked:
Jayden Daniels, LSU
The mobile quarterback archetype is gaining more and more traction in the NFL, and more and more teams are game-planning for this type of QB. I think Daniels will go No. 2 to the Commanders, who just hired Kliff Kingsbury, who loves this type of QB. Kingsbury was the head coach in Arizona with Kyler Murray at QB … and Daniels is better than Murray. Although he is slight, he is elusive and has a cannon of an arm. At 6’4″, he has the height and has time to fill out his 210-lb frame. In five years’ time, Bears fans will be looking back at what they could and should have had.
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Michael Penix Jr., Washington
Penix Jr. put on a clinic at this year’s College Football Playoff Semifinal game. Unfortunately for him, he ran into a buzzsaw against Michigan in the Championship game, but this is a talented player. He sees the field well and can consistently get the ball into small target areas. The only question mark is his health. He’s had a slew of knee injuries, which is the only thing that will move him down this list.
Bo Nix, Oregon
Nix is one of the most prolific QB in college football has ever seen. He opted out of Auburn and moved to the Pacific Northwest for his senior year, and it proved to be a fantastic decision. He completed over 77% of his passes with a whopping 45 TDs and over 4500 passing yards. And although he’s not known for his legs, he did manage to rush for over 500 yards in 2022. The best comp for him is Drew Brees, and if he can be anywhere near Brees, he will have a nice, long NFL career.
Drake Maye, UNC
People are calling Maye the next Josh Allen. That is high praise. He definitely has the size/speed combination where that comparison is apt, but it will take a ton of work for him to be anywhere near what Allen is. But in fairness, Allen wasn’t Allen on day one, either. Maye is a project and could be a late bloomer. The key will be where he goes. If the team who drafts him has the ability to sit him, that could be better than if they are forced to play him immediately.
Caleb Williams, USC
Aside from the physical aspect of the game, is the mental part of the game is almost equally important, especially at the QB position. I don’t want to read too much into Williams’ antics on the field, but I do question if he is ready for life in the NFL. If he couldn’t take an 8-5 record this past season without multiple emotional outbursts, how is he going to face a likely 6-11 season, or worse, with the Bears? I also question his size at 6’1″. Everybody seems to be looking past it, but he’s two or three inches shorter than the ideal height for a QB.
JJ McCarthy, Michigan
McCarthy is Mac Jones 2.0. He’s a game manager who had a monster of a team around him carry him to a title. He has a pea shooter for an arm, and his deficiences will be glaring at the next level. He may have a fairly high floor, but he has a very low ceiling.
