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Danger’s Chalk Report

LAS VEGAS, NV - OCTOBER 09: Jordan Love #10 of the Green Bay Packers gives assignments during an NFL football game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on October 9, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

We have a juicy 4 game slate for the NFL Divisional Playoff Round! With four games between 43.5 and 50.5 it’s going to make for an exciting DFS weekend. We have three heavy favorites which can make for some really under the radar pivots that I am drooling to get on board with.

Stacks
Heavy ownership bias is on all the permutations of the 49ers double stacks. I might still get into a few of them but that means your value plays need to get adjusted and hopefully I can help you do so. What is surprising to me is all the Detroit and Tampa Bay stacks are going way under owned and it’s the highest chance at a shootout on the slate! I’ll be tailoring most of my builds in that direction and I highly recommend you look at doing the same.
Highest projected used stacks:
Purdy/Samuel/Aiyuk
Purdy/Aiyuk/Kittle
Purdy/Samuel/Kittle
Stroud/Collins/Schultz
Jackson/Flowers/Beckham
Jackson/Flowers/Likely
Stroud/Collins/Metchie
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Even though they all make sense, and I don’t blame anyone from going those routes, and as a HUGE Niners fan you know I will get my exposure… The issue is that when you go chalk builds you fall on all the same value plays as everyone else. Duplicated lineups are the bane of short slate DFS.
Here’s a secret I don’t want to share… The highest projected scoring stack is one of the bottom projected owned stacks that I ran in simulations… Shhhh (Goff/St. Brown/LaPorta). Look, I know when you read that you are like “DUH” but I am telling you the allure of the 49ers offense, Mahomes, Allen, and Lamar, are all taking eyes away from this game. Jump on this.
Quarterbacks
I don’t understand the amount of love Brock Purdy is drawing. The clear top QB’s being rostered are Lamar Jackson, then Brock Purdy. Number 3 is CJ Stroud, but I will be honest I have his projections dead last on the slate. Lamar I get, I want in on that too. He’s a one man slate breaking machine at times. Purdy is a fourth for me, because as usual I want over the field on Christian McCaffrey, which means nearly 100%. I have Josh Allen as the highest projected median scoring QB and he is coming in at only 17% ownership projection. Purdy, Love, Mahomes, Goff and Mayfield are all the same play according to point projections and all but Purdy are coming in under 15% owned. Full pivot to any of them is completely reasonable. As stated in the stacks section above all the leverage is in playing both sides of the Goff/Baker matchup.
If I am paying up it’s Allen over Lamar and if I am paying down it’s Goff/Mayfield over everyone.
Running Backs
I haven’t written a chalk article yet that doesn’t begin and end with CMC! Christian McCaffery is always worth the price. He’s the only guy on a slate capable of scoring all 4 of a team’s touchdowns in any given game. But I get it, not only is he expensive but he is projected to be close to 70% owned. Fade at your own risk, because if he has 150 yards, 8 catches and 3 touchdowns, you have lost before the Sunday games even start. However, he was banged up to end the season and if they get a good lead they may spell him more often, so if you were going to fade him this slate looks more forgiving than others I’ve seen.
Aaron Jones and Devin Singletary come in the next highest owned and they are both big fades for me if possible. I don’t see Jones getting the opportunities against this 49ers Defense like we saw against Dallas and there is only one player I want with a Houston jersey on and that is Nico Collins. You can get to Baltimore on the ground but I believe they will shift their looks and put a true test to CJ Stroud and the rookie’s amazing run will come to an ugly end. I can’t touch Rachaad White, you can’t run on Detroit and they truly don’t use White in man coverage passing schemes. I predict the Buccaneers win this in a close scoring shootout and their backs will be desperately pass blocking the entire game. That leaves Pacheco, Cook, the Lions duo and your best guess with the Baltimore backfield. For ownership pivots it’s always easy to drop from Gibbs to Monty and with Hill and Edwards being almost identical I will take Hill all day at an $1,100 discount and projected with a higher ceiling. Pacheco is in a great spot and if I am not playing CMC, I am starting with him.
Wide Receivers
We got them in this order of popularity; Nico Collins, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Zay Flowers, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashee Rice and then mix and match the three Green Bay guys. I’m kind of shocked at Nico Collins coming in at over 50% and not at all by Aiyuk at just under that. Give me all of the most talented guy on the slate in Amon-Ra St. Brown in what I believe will be the highest scoring game on the weekend. I agree that it feels like an Aiyuk game over Deebo but I’m more interested in fading them both to simply eat the chalk on Kittle instead. Name a wide out on the slate that would surprise you less when it’s all over to have more than one touchdown than Mike Evans. This guy is a beast and goes on huge streaks and Detroit is the perfect catalyst. Coming in under Christian Watson and Robert Woods in ownership is ludicrous. Looking at decisions in crowded corps, Ward should cover Doubs mostly so fire up Reed, there is little statistical difference in any Ravens guy after Zay so play the one that fits if you are going that route, and Tampa feels like the long ball is their weakness so it’s Williams over Reynolds for me this week. Diggs should get shut down by Sneed so I am in again on Shakir and my favorite longshot of the week is Trey Palmer with a banged up Godwin and eyes on the big game from David Moore.
Tight Ends
George Kittle is far and away the chalk, and also the probably the the lowest leverage play at the position. His matchup is so good though it is hard to ignore. Just tell yourself its a big CMC game and fade the rest to feel better about fading him if you go that route. My claim that the only Houston player I will roster might be broken by my favorite punt play on the day in Brevin Jordan. He isn’t a sexy option with Schultz in play but for $2,700 he projects more points than other punt pivots I hear talk of all week in Justin Watson, Xavier Hutchinson, Trent Sherfield, David Moore, Richie James, etc… I want Kittle, Kelce or LaPorta in my builds but if I can’t then I will look to Kincaid and Likely or simply punt to Brevin Jordan. I also don’t mind double TE punt with Brevin in a small number of builds.
Defenses
Probably more for the punt factor, but the Defense that appears in the highest amount of winning simulations is Tampa Bay. They blitz more than most any team and Goff does struggle against pressure, so who knows, maybe the get a chance to break a big pick-6! Packers actually lead ownership, which I want nothing to do with, followed by the Ravens and then Niners. Obviously I want either of the latter options if possible but my builds have been needing cheap Defenses so for me it’s been the Bills first then the Buccaneers if necessary.
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