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Danger’s Chalk Report | Wild Card Weekend

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - SEPTEMBER 11: Quarterback Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills passes the ball for a Touchdown to Wide Receiver Stefon Diggs #14in the game between the Buffalo Bills vs the New York Jets on Monday Night Football at MetLife Stadium on September 11, 2023 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Al Pereira/Getty Images)

Danger takes a look through ownership and optimal simulations to find what chalk to eat and where we can pivot for the Saturday and the Main Slates on DraftKings.


Saturday 2 Gamer

Ownership will be in this order Flacco, Mahomes, Stroud, Tua. I am still riding the Flacco experience, and I’ll be honest after that the real pivot is Tua. He hasn’t been great, they need to dominate the ground to win and that game is going to be COLD and windy. But he is at 5% ownership when the other three are at 25%-35%. As pure as a pivot as there can be.
Running back
There are really only 7 legitimate options. By popularity we are looking at Singletary, Pacheco, Ford, Achane, Hunt, Mostert, CEH. I’m eating chalk on Pacheco and classifying both Singletary and Ford as overvalued. The field still seems like they like the passing game in the MIA/KC game and the run game in the HOU/CLE game. I read the opposite. Give me Pacheco and Achane or Mostert in the 2 gamer.
Wide Receiver
Chalk report is showing everyone up top being highly focused on, but also mostly worth the investment. I’m really into the tight ends this week so I will most likely only be grabbing 1 of the top end guys and look for value but you could be different by paying down at RB and loading up on high end WR talent. Tyreek Hill is only the 5th highest owned play and that makes sense with the weather and price but pairing him up with Rice and just stacking the frozen game might give you some leverage.
Tight End
I am playing Njoku first, Kelce second, and Schultz if I have too. I don’t want to punt TE today, I need points from each spot.
Defense is just whatever you can fit in, I see pathways to points for all 4 squads.
Overvalued Plays
Jerome Ford
Devin Singletary
Elijah Moore
Undervalued Plays
Tyreek Hill
Raheem Mostert
Tua Tagovioloa
Robert Woods
Main Slate 3 Gamer
The entire field will be on Dak and then split between Stafford and Goff. Those that are trying to play value will turn to Love. The most overlooked guy on the field at the highest projected points scored and the second lowest ownership projection is Josh Allen. So much so overlooked I’m calling him my lock of the weekend. Dak is a hard fade for me. This game feels like a let down spot for fantasy from the Dallas side.
Running Backs
Everyone looks to be jamming the top 4 guys in a fairly straightforward way. Pollard, Williams, Jones, and Gibbs. When looking at the percentage of times a player shows up in the winning projected lineups Kyren Williams pops the most. The Lions have a great run defense and pass rush and Stafford is going to be feeling it today and dumping off left and right. I’ll be filling in with Warren and Monty and prefer Gibbs over Jones and Pollard, as I am again OUT on Dallas running backs.
Wide Receivers
Ownership is locked on Demarcus Robinson, St. Brown, Lamb and Puka. Though I wouldn’t call any of these fades, I think if you are taking one or more of the high end plays you need to go with a different value play than Robinson who I have at nearly 50% owned. I Like Robinson but if I am going that way, I’ll be getting different with a Diggs or Green Bay receiver with him. However we have perfect pivots in Shakir without Gabe Davis, Jameson Williams or a Christian Watson and you can drop ownership for your lineup with a simple swap from Puka to Kupp. I’m heavy on Josh Allen so I will be on the under 10% owned Diggs.
Tight Ends
The field appears to just be buying in on Ferguson which usually means a fade to me. All the other options are fairly spread out in ownership and I prefer Kincaid as you can probably tell with my picks so far. If you have the proper pivot ready and salary to pull it off you might strike gold in having a spot for Sam LaPorta as I have a gut feeling he plays…
Bills are the clear locks for the field and it’s not close. I am, of course, fading both them and the Cowboys because I won’t have the salary… However, regardless of salary I want to fade the massive chalk almost always and I already said I am not into fantasy plays from Dallas today so I am locked in on playing Rams or Packers and looking for turnovers. Simulation back those plays up mostly because of salary being better used in flex plays.
Overvalued Plays
Dak Prescott
Jake Ferguson
Tony Polland
Dallas Def
Buffalo Def
Aaron Jones
Puka Nacua
Demarcus Robinson
Undervalued Plays
Josh Allen
Jaylen Warren
Christian Watson
David Montgomery
Josh Reynolds
Cooper Kupp
Rams Def
Dalton Kincaid
Khalil Shakir