Trust in Trevor NFL Week 16
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings 1:05 p.m. EST
The Lions got clicking on all cylinders vs. the Broncos after struggling vs. the Bears the week before. QB Jared Goff was able to get it cooking with WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and TE Sam LaPorta while running back Jahmyr Gibbs had over 100 total yards and two touchdowns. They face a Viking team that had been dominant defensively until they gave up 21 fourth-quarter points in a disappointing loss to the Bengals. I’m not going to be too keen on playing either Gibbs or RB David Montgomery. They will split carries against a solid Viking run defense. The key for this offense is to protect Goff against the blitz and push the ball downfield through the air. I do think LaPorta is a solid play, but I think St. Brown could have an outstanding game. I don’t think there is a Viking defender who can keep up with him, so he should get 100 yards and a score. I think if you pass on St. Brown, WR Jameson Williams could be the pivot play. I don’t think both receivers will go off, so for me, it’s one or the other. I can see a scenario where the Lions score 24+ points, but I think they hover in the 20-23 range, meaning I am out on QB Jared Goff.
Speaking of value, I think QB Nick Mullens has a chance to be the best value at his position. He threw for over 300 yards last week and the game plan has to be to attack the Lions’ secondary. We just have to hope his pass protection holds up and he doesn’t make big mistakes. WR Justin Jefferson is much cheaper than he normally would be and he has a great matchup. He should see double-digit targets and 100 yards. Don’t be afraid to use him just because WR Jordan Addison stole the show last week. This a huge game and the Vikings need to get their best offensive weapon involved. TE T.J. Hockenson is also in a good spot here as the middle of the field could be open with the Lions having to cover the excellent receivers. RB Alexander Mattison is most likely out, but I am avoiding RB Ty Chandler anyways as the Lions are excellent against the run. Plus, he is projected as the highest-owned back on the slate. This game does have an outside chance to shoot out so a game stack may be in order here. I would play Mullens, Jefferson, and T.J., and then come back with St. Brown.
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons 1:05 p.m. EST
The Colts don’t have the best matchup vs. the Falcons, but they have their best players back. RB Jonathan Taylor is practicing in full and may go over-looked. He can easily have over 100 total yards with a handful of grabs. If he scores a touchdown, then he is going to get over 20 points. WR Michael Pittman has been a full participant in practice as well and should clear concussion protocol. He has been a target machine and nobody has been able to cover him. I do not feel like playing any other Colt besides these two.
I have no clue what Falcons Head Coach Arthur Smith is doing. The Falcons used a high draft pick on RB Bijan Robinson but then played him sparingly last week. Instead, they give RB Tyler Allgeier more touches, which is a bit shocking. Still, Robinson is in play because it’s a good matchup, and what if they decide to give him 20+ touches? He could break the slate. As for the passing game, Smith announced that QB Taylor Heinicke will be the starter. Will this help WR Drake London or TE Kyle Pitts? It did not in Heinicke’s previous two starts. London is so cheap, though, and it doesn’t take many catches to break value, especially if one is in the end zone.
Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers 1:05 p.m. EST
The Packers have a ton of value at the receiver position, but this may not be the game to use them. The Panthers’ pass defense ranks first in the league and Packer QB Jordan Love is so inconsistent. One play he is rolling out and hits WR Jayden Reed on a dime in the corner of the end zone, then the next play he misses a wide-open receiver by 10 yards. Speaking of Reed, he is dealing with a toe injury and his status is up in the air. He is playable if he should get the start. WR Dontayvion Wicks is cheap enough and worth a shot, as he should see a share of targets. WR Romeo Doubs is unplayable and is severely overpriced. He has done nothing over the last few weeks. TE Tucker Kraft has been playing well, but I don’t think he gets the job done here. Not all is lost, as I think we can find a gem here, and that is RB Aaron Jones. Jones looked fast last week and was used in the passing game. He was on his way to 20+ touches but the game script got away from the Pack as they fell behind. The game script could be in the Packers’ favor, and the best way to attack Carolina is on the ground. Jones will be of huge value if he scores a touchdown.
Call me crazy, but I think this is the week that the Panthers have a player who will be in the winning lineups. My first option is RB Chuba Hubbard. He has had 25-plus touches in three straight games, and the Packers are a great matchup for opposing running backs. I think he has a solid chance for 10+ total yards. He is another player who can break the slate if he scores a touchdown or two. My second choice is WR Adam Thielen. He is still getting targets, and the Packers like to play soft zone. Thielen is the type of player who can expose that. Did you see what Tampa WR Chris Godwin did to that defense? Thielen is a similar type of player. We just need QB Bryce Young to get him the football. Packers CB Jaire Alexander is most likely out, leaving CB Eric Stokes as their top corner. I think WR Jonathan Mingo can beat him down the field and has a chance to score a long touchdown, but again we are relying on Young to get him the football.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans 1:05 p.m. EST
QB Joe Flacco has been excellent, throwing for over 300 yards in his past two games. His price is very affordable but the Texans are a solid pass defense. I just don’t know if he can have that big game again. WR Amari Cooper is solid, but is he going to have a big enough game to win you a tournament? The Browns’ running back situation is a total pass. Between Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt, neither gets enough volume. The prize here, though, is TE David Njoku, who has been on fire. He has a great matchup, and Flacco loves to target him. He is going to be highly owned, but he has been so hot that it just does not matter.
QB Case Keenum will get the start, making the entire Texans’ offense a pass for me. I don’t think there is one player who will stand out vs. a very good Brown defense.
Washington Commanders at New York Jets 1:05 p.m. EST
Speaking of passes, I am passing on the entire Commander offense as well. The Jets’ defense should smother the passing game, and Washington doesn’t have an explosive runner to exploit a mediocre Jet run defense.
On the Jets’ side, I expect RB Breece Hall to have a big game here and score 20 fantasy points against a bad Commander defense. Hall should be the focal point. WR Garrett Wilson is also in a good spot at a cheap price, but can QB Trevor Siemian get him the football? I have a feeling he can, and I will roster Wilson in several lineups.
Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans 1:05 p.m. EST
I think the Seahawks may just be that one team that goes off this week and takes down the cash. They have so many weapons that it may be difficult to figure out who the go-to players will be. QB Geno Smith will get the start, he is under $6K, and I could see a solid performance. I prefer WR D.K. Metcalf over the other receivers, but will Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba cut into his production, or will one of them have the big game? Either way, Smith is in a great spot at the QB position. RB Kenneth Walker was great last week, but he isn’t practicing, and there is a chance that he could miss the game. Does that mean RB Zach Charbonnet becomes a lock button because he is dirt cheap? I think Walker would be in play if he is healthy, but I don’t think I would play Charbonnet as heavily as one might expect. I don’t think he is as good as Walker, and his ownership would be through the roof.
The Titans have only one player who I am interested in, and that is RB Derrick Henry. The Seattle run defense is a sieve, and he should be looking at 20-plus touches. My only concern is Seattle’s offense jumping out to a quick double-digit lead early. I think many will point to WR DeAndre Hopkins as a play, but Seattle’s pass defense is improving and they will get after QB Will Levis. I just don’t see big numbers from the passing game. It’s Henry or bust.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4:05 p.m. EST
Another game where a ton of points could be scored. The only problem is the Jaguars could be without QB Trevor Lawrence and starting QB C.J. Beatherd instead. A Lawrence start, and I would consider WR Calvin Ridley and TE Evan Engram stacks. A Beatherd start, and I would think RB Travis Etienne should get a ton of volume and an increase in passing targets.
QB Baker Mayfield is very interesting and is definitely in play. He should get WR Mike Evans heavily involved and I think they combine for a TD. WR Chris Godwin had a breakout game last week but still failed to reach the end zone. I don’t know if I would go back to Godwin here. I think he benefitted more from a terrible Packer scheme. I would expect that he drops back to the 10-14 point range unless he scores a touchdown, something he hasn’t done in two months. What do we do with RB Rachaad White? His price keeps rising, and the Jaguars aren’t the easiest matchup. Still, volume is king, and he gets 20+ touches every week. Remember when he struggled early and I told everyone to be patient? He hasn’t scored less than 15.9 fantasy points over the past nine weeks. He is as consistent as they come.
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears 4:25 p.m. EST
The Cardinals have two players that I am interested in. First, RB James Conner looks fast and is too cheap against the Bears’ mediocre run defense. Plus, the game script could go his way, as the Bears shouldn’t be that far ahead where the Cardinals abandon the run game. I think he scores a touchdown. Second, it has to be TE Trey McBride, who is QB Kyler Murray’s go-to guy. He is averaging 10 targets over the last three games and the Bears’ defense is a great matchup for tight ends.
For the Bears, I love two players as well. First, it’s QB Justin Fields. I think he has a very good chance to break the slate. The Cardinal defense is so bad that I think Fields can get to 100+ rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. This game has 30+ points for Fields written all over it. Second, I like WR D.J. Moore, who should also have a huge game as well. He could approach 10 catches in this one. TE Cole Kmet is playable, but I think there are better TE options. I can’t pick a Bear running back because they all split carries, so they are all a pass for me.
Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins 4:25 p.m. EST
I think almost every key player is in play and that you will need to have pieces from this game to take down a tournament. I look for the Cowboys’ offense to get back on track. QB Dak Prescott should be much better, and his go-to guy will be WR CeeDee Lamb. Look for at least one TD hookup between them. TE Jake Ferguson should have a handful of catches and will be a lower-owned option to pivot off of Njoku and McBride. WR Brandin Cooks seems to step up in big games and would be the pivot. RB Tony Pollard is the one player I am not on. I think he may score, but I don’t think the yardage will be there.
Considering the Bills ran the ball down the Cowboy’s throat, RB Raheem Mostert should have a big game. I know he isn’t practicing, but that’s his MO. The Dolphins like to make sure he gets plenty of rest. WR Tyreek Hill has been limited in practice as well but is expected to play. His price is up there, but ankle sprain or not he can dominate the slate. WR Jaylen Waddle was already a play with Hill in the lineup but without Hill, he becomes a lock play. RB De’Von Achane is another Dolphin limited and will be the player I avoid. He’s not getting enough volume.
