Welcome to Week 14, all! I had some really solid picks last week, but two things happened and I destroyed my chances. First, I changed my lineups on Sunday morning because I started looking at other recommendations and projections. Second, and I do this more than I really want to admit, I didn’t go with MY picks. What is wrong with my brain when Sunday comes around? I need to stick to my process and trust in myself. I won a Milly Maker and quite a few other top placings in all DFS sports. I know a lot of winning is some luck, because if we truly could predict what players were going to score, we’d all be rich, but I have a process and it has paid off for me. So, my advice is to make your picks, understand why you are making said picks and own them. Now let’s do this!
Patrick Mahomes $7,900 | KC vs. BUF
The majority of the field will be on Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen at this price point, but I like Mahomes better given game environment and the $400 discount from Allen. The Chiefs have not looked great lately, but they need to right the ship here or they may lose the chance to do so. KC has the highest implied team total (25) of the top three QB’s, expected to have the most passing yards (270.5) and the KC/BUF game has an O/U of 48.5 vs BAL/LAR at 40.5. In addition to all the stats, Pacheco being out is going to change the game plan here and Mahomes is going to be dropping back much more. Stack Mahomes with Kelce and Rice. You may also be able to throw CEH in there with the news of Pacheco being ruled out, but it will depend on what ownership comes in at so keep an eye on him.
Justin Fields $6,800 | CHI vs. DET
Fields is in a great place this week against the Detroit Lions who have historically given up a lot of points to opposing QB’s that are mobile. Dual threat QB’s that face the Lions average 30 fantasy points, of which 16 are rushing. There may be some weather to contend with in Chicago, so Fields will be in a great position to use his legs. In Week 11 against the Lions, Fields threw for 169 yards and a TD and also rushed for 104 more yards totaling 24.2 fantasy points. On top of all that, he comes in at a discount of $400 from Week 12 and is coming off a bye with rested legs. Because Fields is so mobile, he can be played naked or comfortably stacked with D.J Moore. Kmet is interesting here also, but I don’t know I will shove him in if not needed. I also don’t think you need a running back, but I would choose Montgomery in a revenge game scenario.
Brock Purdy $6,500 | SF vs. SEA
Purdy, Purdy, Purdy! This guy is a monster just gashing through defenses like it’s his job! Just last week, the 49ers destroyed Philly with Brock throwing 314 yards and 4 TDs and rushing an additional 9 yards for 32.46 fantasy points. This team is on a high right now and it seems no team can stop them or slow them down. They didn’t do as well against the Seahawks in their last meeting a couple weeks ago, but they are at home this time and a completely different looking team. Stack Purdy with CMC and any of the three pass catchers in Deebo, Aiyuk or Kittle in that order.
Jake Browning $5,200 | CIN vs. IND
Who didn’t love what they saw from Browning against the Jags, because I know I did! This kid threw for 354 yards and 1 TD and rushed for 22 yards and a TD for 29.66 fantasy points. At $5,200 this is great value for what he can do. Chase is my favorite stack with Browning. Burrow threw deeper passes for Chase, but his target share has risen to 28% with Browning and air yard share is up to 47% from 39% with Burrow.
Other QB Options
- Joshua Dobbs $5,900 | MIN @ LV
- Russell Wilson $5,800 | DEN @ LAC
- Gardner Minshew III $5,400 | IND @ CIN
- Desmond Ridder $5,000 | ATL vs. TB
Christian McCaffrey $9,200 | SF vs. SEA
CMC is going up against Seattle, a team that he just got 33.9 fantasy points out of in their house. This week he is in his house and I see a two TD game from CMC. He is my lock of the week and should be yours if you can find the salary to fit him in, which I strongly suggest you do. Things don’t usually set up as clean and clear as this, so you must take advantage when it does.
Zack Moss $5,900 | IND @ CIN
This is a huge drop off in salary from CMC, but this is how you can fit them both in. Let’s not sugar coat it, we all got screwed last week when we ate the chalk. For that reason, we are going straight back to him. The Bengals are in the bottom five against the run and Moss should be able to smoke them this week.
Chuba Hubbard $5,600 | CAR @ NO
Hubbard has taken over as RB1 in Carolina and really the only player on the team doing anything. Over the last two weeks, Hubbard has 39 rushing attempts for 149 yards and 3 TDs. He has a total of 45.6 fantasy points in the last two weeks, scoring 20.2 against the Titans and 25.4 against a TB run defense that is good. He is still cheap enough to get to this week and the Saints are not going to be much of a challenge as they have allowed 100+ rushing yards to teams in every game this season. Hubbard is a good contrarian play from Moss and $300 cheaper if you need the salary.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire $4,200 | KC vs. BUF
We just got news this afternoon that Pacheco is out for this game against the Bills, so next up is CEH. Andy Reid confirmed that CEH will be the RB1 with others to see work behind him such as Jerick McKinnon, but he is also battling a hamstring injury and still showing up as questionable. We will need to keep an eye on ownership here as the week progresses, but he may be a fine choice at his price.
Other RB Options
- Josh Jacobs $6,900 | LV vs. MIN
- David Montgomery $6,400 | DET @ CHI
- Joe Mixon $6,100 | CIN vs. IND
- Javonte Williams $5,800 | DEN @ LAC
Justin Jefferson $8,500 | MIN @ LV
Initially I was going to steer away from Jefferson because he and Dobbs may not have that “connection” yet or he may not be quite ready, but I have since changed my mind. I think Jefferson is a sneaky tournament option and he gets a QB in Dobbs that can jump into a game having never passed to anyone or taken a snap and wins games. Yes, he threw a lot of interceptions last week, but he gets arguably the best WR in the league next to Hill, and I think the field is going to be uncomfortable to hit the like button on Jefferson until they see a week’s worth of numbers. Well, I will take the chance here because he is $8,500, which is a dirt-cheap price, and I think this game will be more exciting than they are anticipating.
Ja’Marr Chase $7,600 | CIN vs. IND
This is another cheap price for a great WR this week. In a game where I expect a ton of passes to be thrown on both sides of the ball, Chase’s salary has dropped $500. With Browning under center, Chase’s average depth per target has fallen to 6.4 from 9.4, but his target share has risen to 28% and air yard share from 39% to 47%. He is the alpha WR on this team, and I like him a lot this week.
D.J. Moore $6,500 | CHI vs. DET
When Fields and Moore take the field together, Fields has a QBR of 98.7 when targeting Moore which is the highest of any QB-WR duo in the league. There may be some sketchy weather moving in to Chicago, but I still think Fields gets the ball to Moore enough in this game to make it worth your while. The Lions lost Alim McNeill last week to IR, who was their top interior pass rusher, opening up more time for Fields to scan the field and get the ball to Moore.
Rashee Rice $5,400 | KC vs. BUF
Rice has been doing well this season on his own, but now that Pacheco has been ruled out, Mahomes is going to have to drop back more than they had originally planned for. I like Rice against the Bills and he is seeing more and more target share as his fellow WRs keep dropping balls.
Other WR Options
- Nico Collins $7,600 | HOU @ NYJ
- Davante Adams $7,500 | LV vs. MIN
- Elijah Moore $4,500 | CLE vs. JAX
- Cedric Tillman $3,400 | CLE vs. JAX
Travis Kelce $7,800 | KC vs. BUF
In the last two meetings between these teams, Kelce had 20 targets for 165 yards and 1 TD. Again, he will also be the recipient of Mahomes’ drop backs with the news of Pacheco ruled out. Kelce is the man on this team and he has proven to be efficient against the Bills in the past.
Taysom Hill $5,200 | NO vs. DET
Taysom Hill is such a weapon anywhere on the field and he will be used a lot this week with all of the injuries. I don’t necessarily consider Hill a tight end, so I like him and Juwan Johnson this week, even stacked in the same lineup.
T.J. Hockenson $6,000 | MIN @ LV
I feel like Hock is sneaky this week because there is not much ownership (sub 5%) on him, but he has an amazing matchup against the Raiders who aren’t great against TEs and Hock is more of a WR than a TE. Hopefully he is part of the magic you need to win the Milly this week.
David Njoku $4,100 | CLE vs. JAX
With the exception of last week against the Rams, Njoku has put-up double-digit fantasy scores in the six weeks prior. He is a strong value and even better with Amari Copper out.
Other TE Options
- George Kittle $5,900 | SF vs. SEA
- Brevin Jordan $3,100 | HOU @ NYJ
- Tyler Conklin $3,000 | NYJ vs. HOU
Ravens $3,300 vs. LAR
I don’t really see any reason to spend up at defense this week, but the Ravens are good and can be a spend up if salary allows.
Browns $3,000 vs. JAX
The Browns are a great defense and can be taken any week. I would like them much more if Trevor doesn’t play, but they are still in consideration if he does as I don’t think he will be very mobile.
Chiefs $2,600 vs. Bills
The Chiefs are at home, Allen throws interceptions and they know they need to step it up.
Bears $2,400 vs. DET
The Bears have been able to hold their own this season. They are averaging 5.9 fantasy points this season and have had 7, 9 and 14 in the last three games. The 9 fantasy points was against the Lions a couple weeks ago when they met in Detroit. They always play better in Chicago and they are the cheapest defense.
Other DST Options
- Texans $4,000 @ NYJ
- 49ers $3,700 vs. SEA
- Panthers $3,000 @ NO
- Falcons $2,900 vs. TB