With the Vegas implied game totals for Week 13 and game environments, it was easy to pick out the highly owned players in each game that could be expected to score a lot of fantasy points. What is not as easy is finding value and an edge on your competition, but that is what is required to take down an NFL DFS slate or weekly fantasy league.
In Week 14, we again have some games that are jumping at me to dissect and find the values I speak of. Some of these values may be due to injury, and some may just be suited to this specific week. Unfortunately, there were quite a few nasty injuries in Week 13, but there is nothing we can do about it but hope the player heals well and that we see him back in the game sooner than later.
Best Value NFL DFS Plays Week 14
Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns
I know, it is Joe Flacco, and no one wants to run and draft him, but he gets a nice matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the last five weeks. He just threw for 254 yards and two touchdowns, for a total of 17.16 fantasy points. I did not watch that game, as there were more exciting things to pay attention to, like the 49ers and Eagles game, but I am hearing that Flacco actually looked good. The reality is that Flacco is a veteran and still has a strong arm.
This game has an O/U of thirty-six, but I can see this game turning into more of a higher-scoring affair with the way Trevor Lawrence has been playing and the upside Flacco brings, if they decide to start him. I cannot imagine they will not, but weird things happen in the NFL. The other positive takeaway here is that Flacco has a rapport with Elijah Moore from their days playing for the Jets together. Moore hit a season-high 83 yards and 12.30 fantasy points. In the last four weeks, Moore has scored more than twelve fantasy points in three games, with the highest being 15.40. Amari Cooper went out of the Browns’ Week 13 game with a concussion, so if he is not able to suit up, Moore will certainly see more targets and will have the potential to put up points. I do not expect this line to stay this low. Both run defenses are middling, and that is going to force both teams to take through the air.
Elijah Moore, Cleveland Browns
As the main recipient to Flacco’s passes, we have Moore. As noted above in Flacco’s highlight, Moore played alongside the veteran quarterback in New York and should be in line to see an uptick in targets this week as they will be going up against the Jacksonville Jaguars, likely without Amari Cooper. The Jags are good against the run but rank 28th in passing yards allowed per game. We are accustomed to seeing Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt get most of the usage this season with the carousel of quarterbacks, but Flacco is going to need to throw the ball, and it does not get any easier than to someone you already know.
Moore and Flacco have played eight total games together. In those eight games, Moore has thirty-four catches for 478 yards and two touchdowns. From a DFS perspective, the pair will cost you $9,200 on DraftKings and will leave you plenty of salary to stuff in your favorite studs. From a fantasy manager’s perspective, Flacco is likely available in every single league, and you may need him due to bye and injury. You should feel confident about adding and starting Flacco over quite a few starting quarterbacks I do not even need to mention.
Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears host the Detroit Lions in what should be an exciting game. The Bears are on the bubble and will be fighting hard to position themselves in the hunt. The Lions are atop the NFC North but need to keep winning games to stay there as Green Bay, Minnesota, and Chicago are scratching for wins.
The Bears were on bye last week, but D’Onta Foreman was out with an ankle injury in Week 12 and Johnson played a season-high 74% of snaps against the Minnesota Vikings. His highest snap rate prior to that week was 45%. Khalil Herbert is technically the Bears’ RB1, but he has also been sidelined with injuries. Herbert played just fifteen snaps in Week 12 to Johnson’s 50. Roschon also ran 21 routes and had four targets. From the last game played, Johnson was more involved than Herbert, but we are not sure if Foreman will be ready to play this week or how that will affect the Chicago backfield. I like Johnson here because the weather can be a significant factor in Chicago in December, and the run game will most likely be a priority to start this game.
Chicago likes the upside of the rookie Johnson and will be looking for someone to prove they deserve to be the lead on this team they are perpetually rebuilding. A little consistency never hurt anyone, and I doubt it would hurt this Chicago team. I like Johnson’s upside from a DFS and fantasy league perspective. He is still available in some leagues and will be another good low-priced DFS option with high upside against the Lions this week.