Last year, the Houston Texans won the offseason. The hype surrounding the team was at an all-time high nationally. If you wanted to know how good they were, all you had to do was ask them. At every level of the organization, the franchise couldn’t quit singing their own praises. For a team so religious, I figured they would know that “pride comes before the fall”.
At the time I wrote about how they were speaking too glowingly about themselves before even accomplishing a truly noteworthy feat, as the franchise has never even appeared in an AFC Championship game in their history, dating back to the first year of action in 2002. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/texans-kindlystfu/03f5c3e313beb88f970255a9
Difference a Year Makes
The Texans are no longer the NFL darlings. Yet, we learn our biggest lessons and gain our most growth through our trials and failures. I’m higher on the Texans opportunity this season rather than last. If the vibe surrounding the team last year was summed up by a song, it would have to be “Feeling Myself” by Nicki Minaj and Beyonce.
In 2025, I’d sum up the team’s vibe completely different by using no one else than Houston’s greatest rapper of all-time, Z-Ro, and his track “I know”. Ro uses the words of his doubters as fire while giving glory to God for being where he is, despite not being where he wants to be.
He goes on to mention haters wanting to see him down and how they don’t want to see him now. This offseason the Texans aren’t as boastful but haven’t lost confidence. It feels like they’ve banned together as a team with the mindset of let’s show on the field who we are.
C.J. Stroud
Stroud took the brunt of my criticism in last year’s article. I don’t feel the criticism was unwarranted, but to be fair, he was only 22 years old at the time and dealing with national fame and everyone looking to get a sound bite from him. At 22 years old, he was already 10 times more mature than I was at the same age.
A year older and after a season of not reaching his and the team’s goal, he seems authentically humble while also not losing a bit of confidence. Stroud, like the Texans as a whole, seems to be in the mindset of “You want to doubt us? Watch us work!”
As the one year of the nation’s love for them has died off, it feels like the team has shifted to an us against everyone philosophy. I think they’ll be better for it.
2024 Results
It’s worth mentioning that it’s not like the Texans had a horrific season or didn’t have other factors working against them last year. The team finished 10-7 for the second straight year under head coach DeMeco Ryans and with Stroud at the helm. They won another player game before exiting the following week, just like the year prior.
Stroud and the offense also had to overcome poor offensive line protection and injuries to cause all of their top three talents at the position to miss time. The offensive scheme and its coordinator in charge of it has been scrapped as the issues there have been widely reported on.
Offensive Line
The Texans brought in new offensive coordinator Nick Caley, along with promoting Cole Popovich to new offensive line coach. The duo, along with Ryans and general manager Nick Caserio, have made massive changes with bringing in new pieces to the o-line unit.
They added veteran offensive tackles Cam Robinson and Trenton Brown as well as drafting Aireontae Ersery in the second round of the draft. On the interior, they signed guards Laken Tomlinson, Ed Ingram, while claiming center Jake Andrews.
I had massive concerns this offseason with new starters at four different positions on the line. Since then, my feelings have drastically declined in how it relates to concern. While there may be an adjustment period in the early part of the season, the unit looks improved in limited opportunities.
Ersery has looked like a steal. So much so that the Texans could legitimately trade the recently signed Robinson and get a return without him playing a regular-season rep as Ersery looks like the starting left tackle Week 1. After first tinkering with Tytus Howard moving to right guard, it appears that the team will start him at right tackle, which I wholeheartedly agree with the decision.
Ersery and Howard as starting tackles allows last year’s second-round pick, Blake Fisher, to continue to develop as a backup right tackle. They may opt for him to be the swing tackle, but if Ersery misses time, I believe Houston would be more likely to move Howard to left tackle and slide Fisher into right tackle, that is, if, of course, Robinson does get moved via trade.
It appears that all three new additions on the interior with Tomlinson, Andrews, and Ingram are slated to start, which allows young holdovers Juice Scruggs and Jarrett Patterson to fall to talented depth pieces. It’s a solid unit that should be much improved as a whole.
Wide Receivers
Tank Dell is still recovering from his serious 2024 injury, and Stefon Diggs has departed. The team added veterans Christian Kirk, Braxton Berrio,s and Justin Watson to the group. They also selected two rookies in the first three rounds of the draft at the position from Iowa State with Jayden Higgins (2nd-RD) and Jaylin Noel (3rd-RD).
Nico Collins has been one of the most dominant receivers in the NFL the last couple of years and should be dangerous alongside Kirk. The possible third receiver may be a bit of a surprise as another former Iowa State receiver, Xavier Hutchinson, appears to have taken another step this offseason and could move up ahead of all of the new additions at the position outside of Kirk.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon’s injury has been kept quiet as far as the details, but what is known is that he won’t be back for a while. Houston has Nick Chubb as their current starter and he’s looked good in limited reps. He’s missed time in four of the last five seasons and durability at this point is concerning.
Behind him are Dameon Pierce in a contract year, rookie fourth-rounder Woody Marks who should have a receiving role out of the backfield right out of the gates due to his talent here and Chubb and Pierce lacking in this regard and finally Dare Ogunbowale who does a little bit of everything as a depth piece.
Jawhar Jordan missed all of his rookie season but I believe he has NFL talent and can hold up well in pass protection. Houston kept him around on the practice squad and could get in the mix this year if the Texans don’t make another addition at the position on the active roster or Mixon returns to form sooner rather than later. Fullback British Brooks could also factor into the equation as well.
DeMeco Ryans & the Defense
Ryans’ defense attacks like Ryans did as a player. All players on the field, starters and backups play to the echo of the whistle, always attacking the ball and looking to get into the play. The offseason additions of C.J. Gardner-Johnson, E.J. Speed, third round rookie cornerback Jaylin Smith and bringing back Sheldon Rankins are all value, needed additions.
Even the depth pieces of Tremon Smith and Darrell Taylor gives added insurance if something were to happen to the starters or as rotational players to keep fresh legs on the field.
Last year’s rookie Kamari Lassiter far surpassed my expectations of the prospect and to do it as a rookie, opposite of one of the game’s best cornerbacks in Derek Stingley Jr. was exceptional.
This defense has a legit shot at being the best unit in the NFL and if Stroud can protect the ball again as he did in his rookie season, they should have the highest positive number in takeaways/giveaways. The Texans ranked 6th in the NFL at +10 in 2024 with the Bills #1 at +24 (the highest since the Patriots +25 in 2012).
AFC South
The AFC South came into existence back in 2002 in the Texans inaugural season. The Indianapolis Colts won the division 9 times in the first 13 years but haven’t won the division since 2014. Indy has gone to two Super Bowls, winning one. It’s the only Super Bowl appearances and win for the entire division.
Houston won their first divisional title in 2011. Since 2011 the Texans have won the division 8 times with the Colts, Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars each only winning the division twice each since then. The Texans have won the division back-to-back years four times since 2011 but have never three-peated.
Despite eight divisional titles the Texans are the only team in the division to never appear in the AFC Championship game with the Colts going 4 times, followed by the Titans and Jaguars once, since joining the division in 2002.
Since Peyton Manning left the division and the Colts following 2010, there have been two appearances in the AFC Championship game by the South division. The 2014 season saw the Colts lose to the New England Patriots and in 2017 the Jaguars lost to the Patriots as well.
In his first two years in the NFL, Stroud has made a living by carving up the weak South divisions in the AFC and NFC. Against those opponents Stroud has thrown 26 TDs and 3 INTs. Against the rest of the NFL he’s thrown 17 TDs and 14 INTs. Stroud doesn’t get the NFC South division as a whole this year but does have a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from that division and obviously gets his six games against the AFC South but the division should be improved. He’ll need to be better outside of the South division.
Texans versus top AFC teams
To finally reach the AFC Championship game Houston will likely have to face one or multiple top-tier AFC teams like the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.
Since they first made the playoffs the Texans have faced the Ravens, Chiefs and Bills six times in the postseason. They are 1-5 in those games. They’ve gone 0-3 against the Chiefs, 0-2 against the Ravens and 1-0 versus the Bills.
The win over the Bills was back in Josh Allen’s second season before he became MVP Josh Allen and really developed as he still completed less than 60% of his passes that year.
Texans Tier-1 or Tier-2 AFC Team?
I’m more bullish on the Texans this year than I was last year. I believe they’re focused and have a team bond to prove that the Texans teams of the past don’t define them. In what I expect will be an improved AFC South this year, I think the Jaguars and Colts each have an opportunity to contest for a division title. However, I believe Houston does something they’ve never done before and that’s to win the division for a third straight season.
That still won’t be good enough for them, the fans or anyone else covering the team. They need to do something else that they haven’t ever accomplished and that is to at least make it to the AFC Championship game this year and I don’t get the feeling that would even satisfy the team as they’re looking for a Super Bowl win.
The tier-1 of AFC teams are the Ravens, Bills and Chiefs. The tier-2 teams are the Bengals, Broncos and Chargers. Where does Houston come in? The Texans are on the cusp of cracking the tier-1 teams and in my opinion nipping on the heels of the Chiefs but it’s difficult to bet against Patrick Mahomes. Houston most likely slots in at the top of tier-2 ahead of the Bengals and Broncos.
Texans make the Super Bowl?
Getting to the Super Bowl is a tough task with the Ravens and Bills on the cusp every year and the Chiefs seemingly making it there almost every season. I have the Ravens breaking through this year and winning the Super Bowl. It’ll be hard for Houston to get past the tier-1 of AFC teams that consist of the above-listed trio.
That being said, if Houston can take care of business in the AFC South and secure the top seed for the playoffs, it’d provide an advantageous opportunity that could see them make a Super Bowl push.
My prediction is that the Texans fall short of the Super Bowl but do take a major step forward by appearing in the AFC Championship game. While the team wouldn’t consider it a win, I think it sets them up for further success with Stroud still being young and the confidence of accomplishing that feat propelling the franchise to bigger things in 2026.
Lastly, if you make it to the AFC Championship game, you’re only 60 minutes of game time away from going all the way to the Super Bowl. Houston’s elite defense and a Stroud-led offense would make it realistic to get over that hump.
If they can overcome a playoff slate with the likes of the Ravens, Bills and Chiefs, then a Super Bowl matchup would definitely be a winnable game for the Texans.
