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Fantasy Football Draft Analysis: How to Recover From a Bad Start

Trevor gives a breakdown of a recent fantasy football draft, where he fought through some technical difficulties to finish with a stacked team.

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - SEPTEMBER 27: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts jukes past a defender as he runs downfield during the second quarter of the game against the New York Jets at Lucas Oil Stadium on September 27, 2020 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Bobby Ellis/Getty Images)

I recently entered an NFFC $50 entry fee draft, and it got a little off-course for me. I made a rookie mistake that hurt me early. Luckily, I felt I rebounded later and am still happy with my final team. Let’s go over the draft board as I try to explain my picks and what was going through my head at each selection. 

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Fantasy Football Draft Analysis

Round 1: TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

I was really hoping that Tyreek Hill would make it to me at five, but it just didn’t work out. I thought about taking Austin Ekeler or Bijan Robinson, but it wasn’t a high-stakes league so I went with Kelce. I don’t imagine that I will have many shares of Kelce in the many leagues I am in so I went with him here in a relatively inexpensive league. If it were high stakes, I think I go with Bijan. Anyway, with Kelce on my team, I don’t have to look at the tight end position going forward. 

Round 2: RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

This is where I made the rookie mistake. I didn’t have anyone in my queue, and my internet, which is usually reliable, went out just as I went on the clock. What are the odds? I wanted either Najee Harris or Chris Olave. Oh well, maybe Taylor can get back on the field and have a solid year. He has the talent, I’m just worried about his situation.

Round 3: QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

By the time I got back online, it was my pick again, plus maybe I was a little frantic lol.  I knew I wanted Burrow despite his injury. I probably could have got him in the fourth round, but with my time issues, I went with him. It does hurt to feel like I reached, but if I make the playoffs, Burrow has great matchups. 

Round 4: WR Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers

I had to take a receiver this round, and it was between Allen and Jerry Jeudy. But Allen is the better receiver with a better quarterback; not to mention that he plays in what should be an up-tempo passing offense. The Chargers should rack up a ton of points, so this was a no-brainer. 

Round 5: WR Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders

I wanted another receiver, and at this point, McLaurin was better than the rest. If Washington can get consistent quarterback play, then his production should rise. Regardless, he is a steady, safe pick. 

Round 6: RB Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans 

I like Pierce more than others. I think the addition of Devin Singletary has scared many off of Pierce, but Houston has an improved offensive line and Pierce worked a ton on pass-catching this off-season. I consider this pick a steal; thanks to those who took D’Andre Swift, Javonte Williams and Alvin Kamara ahead of him. I was sweating that I was going to get sniped on Pierce and would have gone to Rachaad White if I had been. 

Round 7: WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

I was so close to landing White in Round 8 as my flex, but since he went a pick before me, Evans was an easy decision. Look at all those receivers who went after him. I feel it’s a big drop-off, and people are dismissing Evans too quickly because of the QB situation in Tampa Bay. As a Round 7 pick, he is a steady player who will have some big weeks. 

Rounds 8-12: Brian Robinson, Skyy Moore, Devon Achane, John Metchie, Tank Bigsby

I really like the players I got here. These selections made me feel a whole lot better about my early rounds. Brian Robinson is back 100% and will get plenty of work. He definitely can break 1,200 total yards and approach double-digit TDs. Skyy Moore could explode in a Kansas City offense led by Patrick Mahomes. Devon Achane has a lot of potential and can do it all. Plus, Dr. Roto himself likes him. John Metchie is a receiver I really like, and I think he will finish with the best receiving numbers for Houston this season. I wanted to draft him in another league but was sniped; I wasn’t allowing that to happen this time. Tank Bigsby is having a tremendous camp, and there is a chance he gets most of the goal-line work on the Jaguars’ offense. I almost went with Nico Collins instead of Bigsby, but knowing that who I didn’t take wouldn’t make it back to me, I went with Bigsby. Bigsby is a Travis Etienne injury away from being a top-15 back and a league-winner, and Collins has no clear path to that kind of upside. 

Round 13 : TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans

If I didn’t select Kelce in the first round, Okonkwo was going to be my target as my TE1. As the draft started to approach these later rounds, I had my eye on him, and I was considering that Kelce is getting older and if he gets hurt then I am really in a bad situation. I think Okonkwo could be a top-10 tight end because of his size and athleticism. He was a ninth-round pick a few weeks ago before the Titans signed WR DeAndre Hopkins, so I think I am getting added value. I didn’t want anyone else to get him, and I liked my depth at other positions at this point. I know there was another manager that thought they were going to sneak him in late, and I ruined those plans. 

Round 14: WR Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts

I think many fantasy players are sleeping on Pierce. I watched all the Colts games last season, and this guy can get open. All he needs is improved quarterback play and he should be a solid contributor. 

Round 15: QB Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

I don’t think there is any doubt that Wilson will improve under new head coach Sean Payton. If, for any reason, Joe Burrow can’t play in Week 1, Wilson faces the Las Vegas Raiders. I think he is a solid backup that you can get late. 

Closing Thoughts

I was really bummed out by the way the first three picks went, but at least they are all very talented players. I really like the majority of my picks after that and think I have a ton of upside on my bench. I did want RB Ty Chandler from my Vikings, but I was saving him for my last pick, where he has been available for me in nearly every draft, and was surprised when someone snagged him in the 18th. I think teams were drafting kickers and defenses way too early. I know Justin Tucker is a heck of a kicker but Round 11? That’s just nuts. What are your thoughts? Let me know on X @ibleedpurple93.