I equate busts with young players…usually rookies. And the phrase bust, can be used as a projection, or as in retrospect, looking back at a player and realizing he was a bust. But it’s much more important to look ahead, and be able to identify who those underachievers and busts will be. Advance scouts and talent evaluators get paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to get this right.
In the last two seasons, I am proud to have predicted the best QB to come out of the draft. Two years ago, I said that CJ Stroud would be the best QB in that draft class, and last year I said it would be Jayden Daniels. In a sense, being able to see the gems, also indicates who to avoid.
This year, I’m saying to avoid the no.1 pick of the Tennessee Titans, Cam Ward. For every Peyton Manning and John Elway, there is a Sam Bradford and Tim Couch. I’m not saying Ward will be Couch or Bradford, but he absolutely won’t be Elway or Manning…either Manning, (Peyton or Eli). In short, Ward will be a bust.
To begin with, a player’s success often depends on the situation he’s entering. And Ward’s situation with the Titans is awful. Having the no.1 pick, the Titans were the worst team in the league last year. It isn’t like they traded for the pick, and have a middle-of-the-road team…they were truly awful last season.
They are coming off of a 3-14 season, which saw them only average 18.3 pts per game. Even more disturbing, they only scored 33 TDs all season, less than two per game. Ward has his hands full. His no.1 RB is Tony Pollard, who barely gained 1000 yds last year. And his top three WRs are all well past their prime. Van Jefferson is the youngster of the bunch, entering his age-29 season. Calvin Ridley will be 31 in December, and Tyler Lockett will be 33 next month.
To “baby sit” Ward, the team selected fellow Hurricane, Xavier Restrepo, a undrafted WR. He had a decent season as Ward’s WR1 at Miami, catching 69 passes for 1127 yds and 11 TDs, but at 5’10 he is undersized. He most resembles Julian Edelman on the field, but he’ll be lucky to come anywhere close to Edelman’s production. His spot on the team may solely because who his QB is.
There is no doubt that Ward’s college career was dominant, first at Washington St. for two seasons, and then in Miami for his senior year. He was an extremely accurate passer, completing over 66% of his passes. And his TD-INT ratio was amazing, throwing 87 TDs and only 23 interceptions…and that was over three seasons with 1436 passing attempts.
He does lack some size, at only 6’2, but he has a cannon of an arm, and is very athletic. But for all of his athleticism, he is more a prototypical pocket QB. In three seasons he only rushed for a total of 406 yds. He’s more like Joe Burrow than Lamar Jackson in his style.
On this team, which lacks any real offensive weapons, Ward will be hard pressed to excel. And for a career of success up to this point, failure will not sit well with the young man. Some say he has a character issue, citing his last college game, sitting out the second half after breaking the all-time TD mark in division 1 football. That is for others to decide; his coach had his back, and only Ward knows what’s in his heart, but it wasn’t a great look.
If Ward was the third or fourth QB to come off the board at the end of the first round, or second round, nobody would care as much, and the spotlight wouldn’t be squarely on him. But that’s not the case, he was the no.1 pick in this year’s draft, and there expectations. Nobody is expecting the playoffs, and not even a 500 season…Vegas has their o/u at 5.5 wins. But coming off of a three win season, the fan base is looking for some hope of things to come. They will expect the team to surpass that 5.5 win mark, at least doubling last year’s number.
And even more than their final record, the fans will be looking for progress throughout the season, to build off of, heading into the 2026-27 season. I’m here to say, that just won’t happen. I’m not saying Ward will be a one and done starting NFL QB, the Titans have too much invested with this no.1 pick. Ward will most likely get as much opportunity as Trevor Lawrence has gotten. But by most metrics, Lawrence has been a bust. In four seasons he has a career 22-38 record.
There’s a fine line between an underachiever and a bust. In Lawrence’s case, if he weren’t the first overall pick, he may just be considered an underachiever, but he, like Ward was taken first. So for Ward, it’s either going to be a successful career, or he’ll be a bust. Believe me, he’s going to be a bust.
