Each year, a bad team from the prior season emerges to dramatically increase their win total and make a run at the playoffs. This season, one of the NFL darlings is the New England Patriots.
And why not, they have had two miserable 4-13 seasons, having fired Bill Belichick and then Jerod Mayo. Those two drafts produced the third pick last season, which produced QB Drake Maye, and LT Will Campbell with the fourth pick this season, to protect him.
They brought in highly respected HC Mike Vrabel, and brought back OC Josh McDaniels, to lead Maye and the offense. And Las Vegas has their win total set at 8.5. They are currently ranked 19th in the league to make the playoffs with odds of +154, just below the Falcons and above the Cowboys.
This team is nearly a coin flip to make the playoffs and finish the season above 500. I’m here to tell you, they won’t. Don’t believe the hype. This team will be hard-pressed to end the year with more than four wins. Everyone is citing their “easy” last-place schedule…but it’s not always who you play, but when you play them.
The Pats open the season at home against the Raiders. Geno Smith is now their QB…when he was with Seattle last year, he came to Gillette Stadium and beat the Pats. With the help of Brock Bowers and rookie RB Ashton Jeanty, they’ll give HC Pete Carroll his first win with his new team.
The Patriots head to Miami in wk.2…where they NEVER win. In wk.3, the Steelers and Aaron Rodgers invade Foxboro. They could very well begin the season 0-3, with Bryce Young coming into Gillette in wk.4. After being benched last season, Young was a different QB for the Panthers, and recently, the Pats have struggled against mobile QBs. There was a Monday Night game in October of 2022, when the Bears and then QB Justin Fields came to town, leaving with a 33-14 drubbing…giving Fields one of his best games ever as a pro.
And they’d better win at least one of these first four games, because in wk.5 they travel to Buffalo, which will be a loss. And that is the first of a three-game road trip. They are each winnable games, first against the Saints, and then the Titans…but winning the third game of a three-game road trip is really difficult to do.
Their first of what I would call a walk-over isn’t until wk.8 at home against the Browns. And then the following week, Atlanta and Michael Penix come to town. They have two difficult road games over the next three weeks, against the Buccaneers and Bengals. And the Bengals will be looking for revenge after last year’s unexpected loss. In two of the other weeks, they play each New York team at home, which should be two wins.
Their next two weeks are two more likely losses, first at home with Buffalo coming to town, and then on the road, heading to Baltimore against the Ravens. By this point, they will surely only be playing for pride, limping into the end of the season against the Jets at the Meadowlands and the Dolphins at home. The Dolphins may still be playing for a playoff berth.
I am hard-pressed to find more than six wins…and seriously think another four-win season is possible. I wish I had more faith in the team, but there isn’t much to cling to. They haven’t dramatically improved the team. Many feel that Will Campbell’s arms are too short to be an effective LT in the NFL…and some local radio hosts have dubbed him T-REX, for his short arms. Stefon Diggs is in the fold, but he’s still recovering from a torn ACL. Optimists say he’ll be ready for opening day, but wk.5 is more realistic…and they may be 0-4 by then.
The team didn’t address their running game, other than drafting Ohio St RB TreVayon Henderson in the second round. Fumble-prone RB Rhamondre Stevenson is still the team’s RB1. Other than Diggs, the Pats did sign Mack Hollins, who isn’t anything to write home about.
Many are citing the progress and development that Maye will have in his sophomore season. But other than blind faith, there is nothing to indicate Maye will take a huge leap, or even a baby step in year two. The knock on him in college was his interceptions and fumbles. In his brief on the field last season, those knocks followed him from North Carolina. And speaking of the Tarheels, they are a second-rate (at best) college football program…Bill Belichick notwithstanding. He threw 338 passes last season, 10 ending with an interception. And more alarming than the 10 interceptions were the nine fumbles he had last year.
Those traits followed him from college, and last year put a bigger spotlight on those issues. Unless he can improve on those numbers, this is going to be a long season for him and the team.
