There is an old adage in fantasy baseball not to chase saves, or target them at your draft. The closer position is historically the most volatile, and many pitchers throughout the year slide in and out of ninth-inning duties. Today’s set-up man is tomorrow’s closer.
I never totally agreed with that sentiment, because although it is true that some teams employ a closer-by-committee approach, there are premier closers in the game who aren’t losing their jobs unless through an injury. In my long-standing 10-team AL-only Keeper League, I kept Carlos Estevez and drafted Kenley Jansen. As volatile as the category is, I always felt that there are only 15 closers at any one time in an Only League and 30 in a Mixed League. Let the other guy scramble to find his saves, I always liked the comfort of knowing I’d have a base of mine in the bank.
In recent years, another category has become even more volatile and unpredictable than saves, and that category is wins. The frequency of starting pitchers getting wins is growing fewer and fewer. The percentage of starting pitchers who get a win is down to only 59%. In the past decade, quality starts have gone down from 54% to only 35%. A quality start is defined as at least six innings pitched and three or fewer earned runs given up. Considering that only translates to a 4.50 ERA, the bar for a quality start is pretty low, and it’s only happening a tad over a third of the time.
The criteria for a starting pitcher getting a win is part of the problem. A starter must pitch at least five full innings to begin the game and leave the game with the lead. With the advent of advanced analytics, Statistics say a starter shouldn’t go through the batting order three times. Throw in bullpens with specialized fireballers, and starters see the shower earlier and earlier. The days of a washed-up starter being the long arm in the ‘pen are long gone.
A few years ago, the Tampa Bay Rays employed something called an “opener”, a relief pitcher specifically used to start the game and throw only one or two innings, by design. In those games, the “starter” could not earn a win. I truly think it’s time for baseball to address and change the rules to get a win. In those games when the starter does not go five innings, it’s up to the official scorer to determine who “won” the game. How often have you had a starter go 4.2 innings, and leave with the lead, only to have the reliever who came in for a third of an inning get the win? It’s infuriating, and it’s not right.
Sprinkle in the fact that most starters don’t get to 100 pitches in a game or over 200 innings per year, and the starting pitcher is fast becoming obsolete. It is amazing they ever get a win, and it’s also amazing they still command the contracts they get.
With just over two weeks of the season in the books and only about 10% of games played, I checked the numbers in my 10-team, AL-Only League, and there are already 36 relievers who have at least one win. There have been 52 starters who have at least one win, which translates to that 59% number.
There are two AL closers, who already have two wins, Cleveland’s Emmanuel Clase and Boston’s Aroldis Chapman. There are three middle relievers with two W’s…Kansas City’s Daniel Lynch, Cleveland’s Tim Herrin, and Los Angeles’s Brock Burke. Logan Gilbert and Cole Ragans are winless so far.
It may be time to readjust our thinking about future drafts. Instead of spending a ton of draft capital on starters, we may all want to consider loading up on solid relievers.
