We have reached the sweet 16! Here are my predictions for every game:
Alabama over BYU
Given the defensive struggles of BYU to contain John Tonje and John Blackwell, I fail to see them stopping the Crimson Tide enough times to outscore them in what will surely be the highest-scoring game of the Sweet Sixteen, as both of these teams rank in the top-10 in offensive efficiency nationally and the game will be played at Bama’s first-ranked breakneck tempo.
Florida over Maryland
I am a big believer in the “Crab 5” of Maryland, but man, this Florida team just looks special right now. To my eye, they are the most well-rounded and balanced team in the sport, with a multitude of players who can beat you and no lack of depth among guards or big men. I expect the Terps to give them a test, but the better team should win out in this one. The only variable that swings this game is foul trouble on either side, so I will roll with the team that has significantly more depth.
Duke over Arizona
As much as I would love to play the Caleb Love narrative here, I have to side with Duke. Much like Florida, I believe they are at the top of the sport right now. At the moment, Duke owns the second-highest overall rating in the history of KenPom.com, which literally dates back to when I was 3 years old (I just turned 30 this past November). It’s hard to pick against a team that embodies such a level of greatness that has been unseen by even the likes of 2011 or 2015 Kentucky, 2021 Gonzaga, or last year’s UConn team.
Texas Tech over Arkansas
John Calipari’s Razorbacks are the only double-digit seed remaining in this year’s NCAA Tournament, but they’re also not your usual double-digit seed. This is a team that was ranked in the top 15 in the preseason and boasts multiple first-round draft picks. But I will be picking their run to end here in San Francisco. Texas Tech’s big 3 of JT Toppin, Darrion Williams, and Elijah Hawkins have been playing as well as anyone this postseason. Arkansas is a team that has struggled to defend dominant forwards all season long, and JT Toppin may just be the best one they have played yet. The national audience will be introduced to Toppin if they are not already aware.
Ole Miss over Michigan State
This is the game that I have waffled the most on this week. On the one hand, Ole Miss has shot the lights out over the first weekend of this tournament (over 40% in both games) and is due for some regression to the mean. But even then, it may be enough to beat the Spartans. Michigan State is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation at 31%, and Chris Beard’s “no middle” defense is specifically designed to force teams into shooting 3-pointers. This game will come down to who can make the most jump shots, and I’m siding with Ole Miss.
Tennessee over Kentucky
While Kentucky has swept Tennessee in their two meetings so far this season, I expect the Vols to have their get-back Friday night. Kentucky is still playing without one of their best scorers in Jaxson Robinson, and I expect that to catch up with them when offense will be needed against Tennessee’s 3rd-ranked defense, and the Vols’ new Chaz Lanier-oriented offense should be able to score plenty of points to win.
Auburn over Michigan
Much like how I felt about Michigan in the round of 32 against Texas A&M, I expect Auburn to take away Michigan’s biggest advantage – their size down low. The Wolverines’ two-big lineup with Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin is a tough matchup for most teams, but not Auburn. If the frontcourt is a wash, Auburn’s guards are playing significantly better than Michigan’s at the moment and this would be where their true advantage lies.
Houston over Purdue
I expect this to be the largest margin of victory in the round of 16. Purdue has used their size and strength advantage to batter two mid-major opponents to this point, but that will not be the case against Houston’s frontcourt. Houston’s guards made a ton of difficult shots against Gonzaga, and that’s a team that is much better defensively than Purdue, so Houston’s offense may be able to generate (and make) easier shots in this one, and I expect the Cougars to run away with it.
