Honorable mention Start: Jakobi Meyers (LV), Mike Evans (TB), CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
Honorable mention Sit: Ladd McConkey (LAC), Zay Flowers (BAL), Jaylen Waddle (MIA)
Start: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
JSN has taken over as WR1 for the Seahawks, plain and simple. Since Week 6, JSN leads the Seattel WR room in snap share, targets, route participation, and, most importantly for us – fantasy production. There really is no debate, apologies to Metcalf owners (myself included). This week, Smith-Njigba gets one of (if not the) most generous defenses to opposing wideouts, giving up 30 points or more to the position in 11/14 weeks (even the Bears dropped 42.6 on them). The game has huge playoff implications for both, so expect some fireworks here (I actually think the O/U is low for this one, but I’m no Ace Rothstein). As long as Geno stays upright and gets the ball out (Vikings have a positive pass-rush advantage score, per PFF) JSN will be a sturdy play with space for a top-15 performance.
Start: Malik Nabers, New York Giants
ESPN ran an interesting article on CB/WR shadows, and I absolutely agree with their assessment of the forthcoming Nabers/A.J. Terrell matchup this weekend. The article notes the success other receivers have had v. Terrell, and the numbers don’t lie – an average of 17.0 points per game to the shadowed wideout (including Justin Jefferson going 7-132-2 against him). PFF agrees with ESPN and I, giving Nabers an 87.8 grade against the matchup this week. And on the whole, Atlanta has been horrible against the position all season, and I truly expect more of the same here. As of right now, it looks like Drew Locke will be under center Sunday, though I’m not sure it matters. Nabers is second in the NFL in targets (CeeDee Lamb), and it really hasn’t factored as to who the QB is (he’s averaging 12 targets per game in his last four). He won’t contend for WR1, but his 15-17 points will for sure play for us.
Sit: Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco 49ers
Deebo was a sit reco in Week 14, and I’m bringing him back this week. He’s just been soooooo disappointing for us (and the 49ers), considering when Aiyuk went down, he had a real opportunity to step up. Samuel Sr. hasn’t finished above WR54 since Week 10, and friends, that was a measly WR25. I could regurgitate all the reasons I listed in Week 14, but I won’t. He’s been brutal for weeks now, his target share has dropped to 17.8%, he’s trailed Jauan Jennings in snap share pretty much all year, and the finishes just aren’t there for us. If you’re contending for the ship, do it without Deebo.
Sit: DJ Moore, Chicago Bears
Regular readers of this column know I have a huge problem with inconsistent players, regardless of the fault of inconsistency. Such is the case with DJ Moore, who has been elite at times (three top 10’s), but mostly leaves us wanting/needing more. Outside those top 10 finishes, he’s only finished inside the top 30 once all season. And I know you know, but this Bears offense is brutal. BRUTAL. And it’s just too much of a gamble in the fantasy playoffs on any of their pass catchers – Rome Odunze (whom I love), Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet (see below), and others. They tried to work him in Monday night, but it’s abundantly evident they are only using him on screens, and short-yardage plays (including runs). The matchup screams WR production, but this isn’t a group we can count on if we want to still be playing next week.
