Honorable mention starts: Josh Allen (BUF), Lamar Jackson (BAL), Brock Purdy (SF)
Honorable mention sits: Caleb Williams (CHI), Mac Jones (JAX), Kirk Cousins (ATL)
Start: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Fantastic matchup this week against the reeling Patriots defense, the most generous unit to opposing QBs over the last month. Murray didn’t look as good as his 23 points last week (QB10), but for our purposes, what do we care? Take those two INTs off the board and he looks even better. After this week it’s soft spots like Carolina and the Rams, so we’re riding in those games also. Feels like Kyler rushes for a score in this one and finally gets Trey McBride that tuddy we’ve all been waiting for. Boom/bust this week is a real thing, but I’m going with the boom.
Start: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
If you told me Justin Herbert has let you down the past two weeks, I’d let you. I’d even agree with you. Two tasty matchups away from home against the Falcons and Chiefs, and he finished QB30 and QB19, respectively. I’d understand if you went the other way on this one. But for some reason, I’m buying here. I am guessing he gets Ladd back this week, which will give the offense an uptick, and I’m not scared by the “improved” Bucs pass defense – games against Aidan O’Connell/Desmond Ridder (13.15) and Tommy DeVito (12.8) really bring the average down in a deceptive way. Oh, and I’m not worried about the injury – he’s playing (winning brings that out in players). I don’t think Herbert will be Top 5, but Top 12 is a solid bet.
Sit: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Let me start my sit column with an obvious start – Jalen Hurts. Of course, we’re trotting him out there with our fantasy lives on the line, but I hate this matchup for Hurts (and some other Eagles) for a few reasons. First, the Pittsburgh defense is really good, and this projects to be more of a defensive game (O/U sitting at 42.5 as of this writing). Matchup aside, there is serious drama brewing in Philly, and it’s affecting everything – Jalen hasn’t surpassed 200 yards for the third straight game (108 against Carolina – yikes), they’re over-relying on Saquon Barkley (nearly 80 touches the past three games), and none of the pass-catchers have been productive (though having DeVonta Smith back is kind of big). Maybe they’ll take the week to get right and be just fine. Playing my gut here and not vibing with your boys, plus playing one of the stingiest defenses to the position, won’t mix well for the Eagles on Sunday afternoon. Think floor game, not ceiling.
Sit: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I know. Here I am recommending another stud as a sit. And the same thing – if you go the other way, I would understand. Los Angeles is a pretty good defense against opposing QBs – just ask Patrick Mahomes (or Kirk Cousins and his four interceptions against them). Take out Burrow and Jackson, and the numbers look even better for the Chargers defense. Evans is back, yes; McMillan looks capable, sure; and Otten has flashed as a solo act. But I just haven’t been as impressed with Baker since Week 9. Each of the five matchups were fairly soft, yet he only produced two finishes during that time over 20 points, finishing QB16, QB23, QB8, QB28, and QB8, respectively. Chances are you don’t have better, so you’re rolling him and hoping for the best. Unfortunately, I don’t expect it this week.
