#1 – Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears
This game should be the fastest pace and high passing volume of the week.
The Rams are second in neutral pace while leading the league in neutral passing rate. The Bears rank seventh and fifth in neutral pace and passing rate.
The Bears are 3rd in plays run (203), 4th in plays/game (66.7), and are 5th fastest in seconds per snap (25.4). They are also 5th in Pass Percentage (65%) and have run the 2nd most Non-Two Minute No Huddle Percentage at 27%. The Rams are 12th in plays/game (60.3) and 8th fastest in seconds per snap (26.8). They are also 8th in Pass Percentage (62%) and have run the 10th most Non-Two Minute No Huddle Percentage at 11.1%. The two teams combined have a Pass Percentage + Pass Rate Over Expected Percentage of 61%, the 4th highest of the week.
The Bears have plus matchups on paper across all skill positions vs. the Rams’ defense that you can run and throw on, which should allow them to score some points at home and get us plenty of back-and-forth action in this one.
#2 – Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders
This game doesn’t profile to, but it will be played at a blazing pace with plenty of passing volume.
Cleveland ranks 11th and 9th in neutral pace and passing rate, while the Raiders are sixth in neutral passing rate.
The two teams have the 3rd fastest adjusted pace time of 29.9. The Browns are 4th fastest in the league at 29.0. The Browns are 6th in plays run (198), 5th in plays/game (65.7), and are 4th fastest in seconds per snap (25.0). They are also 2nd in Pass Percentage (66.7%) and have run the 5th most Non-Two Minute No Huddle Percentage at 18%. The Raiders are #1 in plays/game (60.3) and 8th fastest in seconds per snap (26.8). They are #1 in Pass Percentage (69.1%) and have run the 6th most Non-Two Minute No Huddle Percentage at 16.1%. The two teams combined have a Pass Percentage + Pass Rate Over Expected Percentage of 72%, which is the highest for the week by a wide margin!
The Browns face a Raiders defense that will most likely be without their defensive MVP and relentless pass rusher, Maxx Crosby. The Raiders face a Browns defense that was just picked apart by a now-recently benched quarterback, Daniel Jones, in the Browns’ loss to the Giants at home in Week 3.
#3 – Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts
The Steelers have technically “played fast” all season, and it continued in Week 3 with OC Arthur Smith’s offense ranking eighth in Neutral Pace on the week. The Colts operate one of the league’s fastest offenses, and are second in Neutral Pace.
The two teams have the second-fastest adjusted pace time of 29.6. The Steelers are the sixth-fastest in the league at 29.8, while the Colts are third at 29.4. The Steelers are ninth in plays run (189) and 10th in plays/game (62.3). They also have run the eighth-most non-two-minute No-Huddle Percentage at 14%. The Colts are #1 in seconds per snap (24.3) and have run the fourth-most non-two-minute No-Huddle Percentage at 19.1%.
The Steelers have good matchups against this Colts defense, so quarterback Justin Fields and the offense should be able to get some things accomplished on the road. The Colts offense, led by quarterback Anthony Richardson, is struggling badly, so we’re betting on the pace here to give them more opportunities. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor might be the best option on a run back with a couple of Steelers stacked on the other side in DFS.
