Home runs are up league-wide in 2025, but some pitchers are wearing the damage more than others. Using Statcast’s Expected Home Runs (xHR), plus detailed breakdowns of doubters (barely cleared the fence) and no-doubters (out in every park), we’ve analyzed the top 10 pitchers giving up the most long balls so far this season. In honor of the HR Derby, let’s dig into the pitchers most bombed and battered.
1. Zack Littell (TB)
• HR Allowed: 24
• Expected HR (xHR): 20.9
• HR – xHR: +3.1
• Doubters: 11 (45.8%)
• No-Doubters: 8 (33.3%)
Verdict: Littell isn’t giving up monster shots, but he’s giving up just enough. Nearly half his HRs are wall-scrapers, suggesting shaky location and some bad luck. Still, with a +3.1 xHR gap, he’s clearly getting touched more than expected.
2. Jameson Taillon (CHC)
• HR Allowed: 22
• xHR: 19.9
• HR – xHR: +2.1
• Doubters: 4 (18.2%)
• No-Doubters: 11 (50.0%)
Verdict: Taillon’s homers are loud. Low doubter rate, high no-doubter rate — it’s nukes, not flukes. His fastball and breaking ball might be too easy to barrel when mistimed.
3. Jake Irvin (WSH)
• HR Allowed: 22
• xHR: 21.5
• HR – xHR: +0.5
• Doubters: 11 (50.0%)
• No-Doubters: 9 (40.9%)
Verdict: Irvin’s profile screams average — expected and actual totals align. But with half his HRs being doubters, he’s likely getting punished by hitter-friendly parks and ill-timed fly balls.
4. Bailey Ober (MIN)
• HR Allowed: 21
• xHR: 22.2
• HR – xHR: –1.2
• Doubters: 9 (42.9%)
• No-Doubters: 14 (66.7%)
Verdict: His xHR suggests he’s overperforming. But when Ober does give up the long ball, it leaves. His 66.7% no-doubter rate is the highest on the list.
5. Zac Gallen (AZ)
• HR Allowed: 21
• xHR: 19.4
• HR – xHR: +1.6
• Doubters: 9 (42.9%)
• No-Doubters: 7 (33.3%)
Verdict: Gallen’s HRs tend to be fence-scrapers more than moonshots, indicating he’s just missing on execution. He’s slightly unlucky and likely to normalize if/when he tightens his command.
6. Jack Flaherty (DET)
• HR Allowed: 19
• xHR: 19.7
• HR – xHR: –0.7
• Doubters: 6 (31.6%)
• No-Doubters: 10 (52.6%)
Verdict: While his HRs are above average in terms of quality, his total lines up with xHR. Over 50% no-doubters is a sign his mistakes are getting punished. Hard.
7. Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL)
• HR Allowed: 19
• xHR: 17.5
• HR – xHR: +1.5
• Doubters: 11 (57.9%)
• No-Doubters: 8 (42.1%)
Verdict: One of the highest doubter rates on this list, which is a result of pitching in hitter’s parks and getting unlucky on marginal fly balls. Still, with a +1.5 gap, he’s been just vulnerable enough.
8. Bowden Francis (TOR)
• HR Allowed: 19
• xHR: 15.2
• HR – xHR: +3.8
• Doubters: 9 (47.4%)
• No-Doubters: 5 (26.3%)
Verdict: Francis is giving up HRs at a rate nearly 4 above his expected count. With just 26.3% of them being true no-doubters, he’s been unlucky with some of the softest bombs on this list.
9. Jeffrey Springs (OAK)
• HR Allowed: 19
• xHR: 16.6
• HR – xHR: +2.4
• Doubters: 7 (36.8%)
• No-Doubters: 8 (42.1%)
Verdict: Springs’ profile is balanced — some bad luck, some poor pitches. His no-doubter rate is solid, but he’s giving up a few too many just-clear-it shots to escape scrutiny.
10. JP Sears (OAK)
• HR Allowed: 19
• xHR: 15.4
• HR – xHR: +3.6
• Doubters: 6 (31.6%)
• No-Doubters: 7 (36.8%)
Verdict: Sears is among the most unlucky on the list. With a +3.6 differential and just a third of his homers being no-doubters, he deserves better than the numbers suggest.
