To keep it simple, you want players who bomb it off the tee and roll the rock this week. Approach play is always important, but the advantage gained with long drives is difficult to make up for the shorter hitters. This is even more the case with the early week rains creating softer conditions. High ball hitters will be favored as well, so apex height is a stat I’m interested in. Course history here is sticky, so guys that have played well here in the past have an edge. GIR % being lower than most weeks will make short game important as well.
Skillset fits/top rated in BTN model:
Top dogs
Rory Mcilroy: $12,200
Narrative of getting monkey of his back with his Masters victory and great driving will make him a popular play. Phenomenal course history here. Course is made for Rory’s skillset.
Bryson Dechambeau: $11,500
Sharp bettors got him early at 14/1 this week, which is a steal given that he’s driving the ball as well as any player ever has. If it feels like Rory & Bryson have been near the top a lot at majors lately, you’re right. It’s not going to change anytime soon.
Justin Thomas: $9,900:
Playing fantastic overall golf this season, getting his first victory in multiple years at the Heritage and finishing top-5 several other times. Putting has been as good as ever, and the course history is second best only to Rory.
Mid Range
Corey Conners: $8,300
Tee-to green game will always have him rated highly. Tremendous mid and long iron player. Has contended into the weekend several times now at majors. Course may been to long for him to win, but he’ll likely be lingering.
Patrick Reed: $8,100
Major championship pedigree, elite short game play, good form. Reed doesn’t have the distance off the tee, but makes up for it in other very important ways.
Keegan Bradley: $7,200
Ryder Cup captain is putting together another great season. While not a bomber, he hits it high and is a great long iron player. Seasoned vet will probably get a look at some possible Ryder Cup team members if he plays well into the weekend.
Bargains
Keith Mitchell: $6,200
Great driver of the golf ball, in good form of late and mid iron play is very good. Has been struggling to put a full tourney together, but is on a streak of top-20 finishes.
Gary Woodland: $5,800
G Wood is checking some boxes this week. His distance has returned, long irons look great, and he’s rolling the rock. Contending here could be the next step in his recovery story.
Kevin Yu: $5,800:
Long driver, approach play trending, hits it fairly high. Has little course or major championship history to show, but the skillset is there.
Gut plays/off the radar:
Xander Schauffele $10,700
Absolutely mashing the driver right now, the defending champ is rounding into for. His short game can carry him if he gets off with the irons, and the low scores he shot last year won’t be required. Great high-priced pivot.
Harris English: $6,800
Having a resurgent year, the veteran is due to contend in a major soon. The distance isn’t elite, but the long iron play and apex height are there. Game has been trending again after getting his first PGA Tour W in several years earlier this season.
Bud Cauley: $6,200
Game has been trending this season. While he’s not a bomber, his game looks good in all other categories. Will be lesser owned than Mitchell at the same price.
Michael Thorbjornsen: $5,700
Bomber with great pedigree. Hasn’t fully found his stride as a professional but game has been trending. Putter is concerning, but you’re looking for a made cut with lots of birdie opportunities from a player at this price.
