Welcome to The Learning Curve. I don’t have all the answers…and that’s kind of the point.
I have had my lineup completely set and felt good about every decision. I had done my homework, knew why each player was starting, and was ready to enjoy some football. Then I made the mistake of trying to feel a little more confident.
I turned on SiriusXM.
One show was talking so highly about a player on my bench that I started wondering whether I was missing something. The matchup sounded great, the opportunity made sense, and suddenly my original starter did not seem like such an obvious choice. By the time the conversation ended, I had made the switch.
Then another show started praising the player I had just benched, using some of the same reasons I had liked him in the first place. So back into the lineup he went. At that point, whoever hosted the last show before kickoff had a pretty good chance of setting my lineup.
Sound familiar? I have done this more times than I care to admit. What began as a quick check became a debate I could not finish, and there were Sundays when I wished I had simply left it alone.
Apparently, Everyone Was on a Temporary Contract
In my early fantasy days, this habit extended to my entire roster. By Week 3, I barely recognized the team I had drafted. My first-round pick was about the only one with job security. I was going through players faster than my kid went through diapers.
I thought all that activity meant I was improving my team. Sometimes it did. Other times, I was just giving the latest opinion more weight than the reasons I already had.
That is the habit I still recognize when I keep changing my lineup. I start with a plan, hear something convincing, and suddenly feel like I need a new one.
When Research Becomes Reassurance
A recent conversation in our Sleeper league, The Learning Curve with Taino, brought this home. One manager had concerns about Bo Nix and picked up Sam Darnold because he liked the idea of starting the quarterback throwing to JSN. But the rankings and projections he consulted favored Nix, so he left Darnold on the bench.
He asked whether he should trust his gut or stick with the rankings. These are exactly the conversations I hoped we would have when I started the league. Someone asks an honest question, and the rest of us realize we have been wrestling with it too.
For me, the trouble starts when I stop asking what I can learn and start asking someone to make me feel certain. Neither radio host was necessarily comparing my two players or discussing my particular lineup. They were explaining why they liked someone, and I treated that enthusiasm like a substitution request.
I was looking for certainty, and apparently I thought it was coming after the commercial break.
Give the Advice a Job
I have heard Dr. Roto acknowledge that Vegas knows more than we do, while still sometimes disagreeing based on his own analysis and gut. I appreciate that balance. Respecting good information leaves room to think through it and reach your own conclusion.
That starts with knowing what I need help answering. If I am worried about a player’s workload, I should investigate his workload. If an injury could change his opportunity, I should check that situation. Someone praising my backup does not automatically resolve either concern.
Before switching, I need to ask: What did I learn that changes the reason I chose my starter?
An answer might justify the move. But if all I can say is that someone made another player sound exciting, I may need to pause. There will always be another player someone likes, and my lineup does not have room for every convincing radio segment.
This Week’s Learning Curve Challenge
Pick one lineup decision you keep revisiting. Write down why you made it and what specific information would make you change it. Then use your trusted sources to answer that question.
You might uncover a good reason to switch. You might confirm that your original choice still makes sense. Either way, give your research a finish line instead of searching until you find another reason to worry.
I keep listening to SiriusXM, and I enjoy several shows. They help me learn and see things I might have missed. But once I have done my homework and set my lineup, I need to trust the process that got me there. Unless something meaningful changes, I want to spend Sunday watching football instead of reopening the investigation into my FLEX.
That is why I play in the first place.
Trust your process. Have some fun. And remember, we’re all somewhere on the curve.
Subscribe FREE for the latest content on the DrRoto YouTube Channel