After this Sunday, the Super Bowl will only be two weeks away, and we’ll know who will participate. If you’ve followed me all season, you know how much of a fan I am of the Chiefs and how much respect I have for their greatness. I am not a typical New England hater who wants them to fail. Their success does not detract from what Tom Brady and the Patriots did for two decades.
You also know I subscribe to the theory that if something has never happened, it probably won’t. No team has ever won three consecutive Super Bowls…all season, I’ve felt that Kansas City would be tripped up somewhere. And based on their regular season, constantly winning close game after close game, I feel safe to say that I still don’t think they’ll win.
At the moment, Las Vegas agrees with me. Of the four remaining teams, the Eagles are sitting at +175, while the Chiefs are second at +210. And with so much controversy swirling around the referees favoring the Chiefs and steering games in their favor, I think there may be a reverse effect this week against the Bills. I’d be shocked if any questionable calls favor the Chiefs, and I can see a couple going in Buffalo’s direction.
In his career, Josh Allen is 4-4 against Patrick Mahomes…but 0-3 in the playoffs. There is no doubt that Mahomes and HC Andy Reid know how to win in the playoffs, but Allen certainly won’t be intimidated heading into Kansas City. He’s playing the best football in his life and is the probable MVP of the league. And in their matchup this November, the Bills easily dispatched the Chiefs 30-21 in Buffalo.
I know the playoffs are different, and the NFL World seemingly does want Kansas City and the Taylor Swift posse to be in New Orleans in two weeks, but this feels like a spot for Buffalo to finally break through. They aren’t getting much, but they take 1.5 points. The Bills have outscored the Chiefs by a whopping 140 pts this season, and their point differential is 98 pts better. And they have the head-to-head victory…they are the better team this year, with the QB playing better. Kansas City only ranks 19th against the pass this year, and Allen is firing on all cylinders.
Looking at the plethora of prop bets, I’ll take Allen to pass for more than 225 yards at -132. And on Kansas City’s side, I’ll again take Travis Kelce to gain over 60 yards this week at -160…he paid me well last week. The weather is supposed to be mild, leading to more scoring. The final score was Buffalo 27-24. The o/u is 48.5, so the over will be my play.
In the other game, something that has never happened may occur: a rookie QB making it to the Super Bowl. Jayden Daniels is trying to make history and will if his Commanders can enter Philadelphia and defeat the Eagles. He won’t. I felt like he’d turn into a pumpkin last week in Detroit…I was wrong. However, I also felt that the Eagles are the only team in the NFC other than the Lions that can get to the Super Bowl. If they win on Sunday, I’ll be proven right.
These two NFC East behemoths will face off for the right to go to NOLA. Vegas has set the line at 6.5 pts, with the Eagles favored. If we look at the two regular season games, the two teams split, with each team winning at home. But the Eagles were well in control of their second matchup in DC. Heading into the fourth quarter, they were ahead 27-14, and the game wasn’t close. A 22-6 fourth quarter catapulted the Commanders to a 36-33 victory, splitting the season series. But for seven total quarters, the Eagles handled the Commanders fairly easily.
If the Commanders have an Achilles heel, it’s their rushing defense. They rank 30th in the league. The Eagles ranked second this season, only behind the Ravens, in rushing offense. I may have been a week early, but this is the week that the Commanders turn into pumpkins. Don’t get me wrong, I like the team and love the QB, but the Eagles are the better team and were head-to-head this season. The game is in Philadelphia, the final piece of the puzzle and the final nail in Washington’s coffin.
The Eagles are favored by 6.5 points, and I can see a ton of money going on the upstart Commanders, but the Eagles will win this game fairly convincingly. Like Kansas City on Sunday, the weather will be mild in Philadelphia. Lay the points on the Eagles. Regarding prop bets, Saquon Barkley is -115 to rush for 125+ yards. Final Score: Eagles 31-20. The o/u is 47.5 points, so I like the over in this game, too.
If you want to get frisky, the future odds in the Super Bowl matchups are out. I’m predicting an Eagles-Bills matchup. The odds of Philly beating Buffalo are +470. The Odds of Buffalo beating Philly are +410. If this is the matchup and you take both sides, you’re guaranteed a win on Super Bowl Sunday before that game is even played.