I realize we are in the heart of the NFL season, but now that the baseball season is over, I thought I’d do a quick autopsy of the season and some quick points heading into the Hot Stove year and 2025 season.
To begin with, the MLB playoffs proved to be far more interesting than the NFL season thus far, which leads me to my first question:
- Is Baseball Hip Again?: Yes, let’s face it, baseball is hip again. The sport has the biggest star in the world in, Shohei Ohtani…Lebron James and Patrick Mahomes could make an argument, but neither has the same international resume as Ohtani has. Only Lionel Messi could compete on a world stage, but now, especially after the World Series victory, the nod goes to Ohtani.
The MLB playoffs were great, while the NFL has been lackluster. There are too many bad and uninteresting teams and awful officiating. The NFL is in transition, with many star veterans retiring and being replaced by lesser talent.
After Patrick Mahomes, there is a big drop-off. The league still does have Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, but neither has won yet…and it’s all about the championships and trophies. Brady had both Manning brothers as rivals, and Mahomes doesn’t have one. And the next wave of young QBs isn’t there yet. Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert have proven to be underachievers thus far, and it remains to be seen if Jordan Love, CJ Stroud, Jayden Daniels, and Caleb Williams are the real deal yet.
Baseball has the biggest player in the biggest market on the best team. A couple of seasons ago, baseball changed its rules to make the sport faster in a fast-paced world, which has made the games shorter while also making them more exciting. And it is coming off a fantastically entertaining playoff run, which showcased the sport’s two biggest franchises in the two biggest media markets on opposite coasts.
Advantage Baseball.
- The Dodgers will win at least three to five more World Series: The Dodgers have unlimited resources. They have their best players locked up long-term. The nucleus of Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman isn’t going anywhere. They won this year with a beat-up pitching staff that didn’t even have Ohtani throw a pitch in anger. And he’ll be back on the mound in 2025.
There is no reason to think this team will not make deep runs in the playoffs every year he is on the team…and if at any point they are lacking a piece somewhere, ownership is committed to spending what’s needed to improve the team. This team isn’t going anywhere.
- Ohtani is Babe Ruth: If you compare the two player’s stats at similar points in their career, the numbers are eerily similar. Up to this point, Ohtani is already Ruth. Ruth ended up exclusively hitting, and Ohtani may do the same. And we saw what an exclusively hitting Ohtani can do; his numbers this season were other-worldly. Another elbow injury will surely force him to stop pitching. And if you factor in his speed, Ohtani even adds an element to his game that Ruth didn’t have.
I never thought a 50-50 season was possible, and he kind of made it look easy. It’s a shame his transition to the MLB from Japan happened so late because if he were here from age 20 or 22, it’s scary to think what his career numbers would end up being.
- Mookie Betts is this generation’s Derek Jeter. Betts now has three World Series titles, one with the Red Sox and two with the Dodgers, while Jeter won five. Betts is still a young man, at only 32 years old, and has many solid seasons in front of him. He has eight more seasons on his current deal with the Dodgers, and he only needs two more championships to match Jeter.
And from a statistical perspective, Betts is a better hitter. Jeter has a higher career average than Betts, .313 to .294, but Betts’ OPS is far higher, .897 to .817. And Betts already has more career HRs. If you compare their other accolades, you will see that they are so close to one another. Mookie has six Gold Gloves and Silver Slugger Awards. Jeter has five of each. Betts has won an MVP, while Jeter has a World Series and All-Star game MVP…and was rookie of the year.
At age 32, the biggest difference may be that Betts won’t reach 3000 hits. He currently has 1615, while Jeter had 3465 for his career. For years Red Sox fans chanted, “Nomah’s Better”…well that didn’t prove to be accurate, but when all is said and done, it may be possible to chant, “Mookie’s better”.
- Should the Yankees pick up Gerrit Cole’s fifth-year option?: Cole opted out of the remaining 4yr/$144M of his contract with the Yankees. There is a clause that the Yankees can override Cole by tacking on a fifth yr for an additional $36M…effectively making the rest of the deal 5yr/$180M.
The question is, should they? Another question is whether Cole should have opted out. At age 34, Cole is taking a bit of a risk. There is a ton of money for starting pitching, but recent bloated contracts for aging starters haven’t gone so well…see exhibits A and B, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. Cole may surpass his current $36M annual salary, but I can’t see a team offering him anything more than his four seasons with the Yankees.
As far as whether the Yankees should give him the option yr, an argument can be made on either side. They are $20M under the luxury tax, including his $36M, but $56M if they don’t pick up the option. And after the World Series meltdown in the fifth inning of game five, I’m not sure Yankee fans want Cole. Not re-signing him could be the way the wind is blowing in the Bronx. Also, having Cole’s $36M in their pocket could come in handy in signing free agent Juan Soto. If I were Brian Cashman, I’d let Cole go onto greener pastures.
- Who will sign Juan Soto?: And speaking of Soto, the Yankees MUST re-sign him. The question is, what will it cost? Well, he already turned down a 15yr/$440M contract with the Nationals back in 2022.
He’s only 26 years old and just entering his prime. He could still warrant a 15-year deal, and that would take him to his age 40 season. He now has Ohtani’s $700M deal as a baseline, although nobody will give him that much, even with creative financing. But he will absolutely be looking for $600M. Other than Ohtani, Aaron Judge has the highest annual salary at $40M per year. Soto will command at least that amount.
I can see a scenario where a team gives him a 13-year/$ 520-million deal with two options that could take it to 15-year/$ 600-million. And that team needs to be the Yankees. They are too right-handed heavy with Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, and Soto was the perfect addition this season. Aside from that, they traded a ton away to get him. It would be a waste to only have him for one season.
If they don’t re-sign Cole, they have the salary flexibility to complete it. And they only have Stanton’s contract for three more seasons to contend with. This is a win-win for the Yankees and for Soto.
- Who will sign Corbin Burnes?: With or without Gerrit Cole on the free agent market, Burnes is the top free agent pitcher this year. He’s only 30 years old and is a power right-handed ace and no.1 on any staff. He signed a short term deal with the Orioles. He won’t be doing that again.
There won’t be a shortage of teams who will want him, and there’s no shortage of teams who desperately need him. But one team must get him: the San Francisco Giants. They are in the almost impossible NL West with the Dodgers at the top. And they have to contend with the San Diego Padres, who are seemingly in on every free agent and willing to throw their money around.
In their own right, the Giants have tried to acquire almost every free agent on the market, but to no avail. They must show their fanbase that they can snag the players they go after. They lost out on Ohtani and Judge. They frankly should go after both Burnes AND Soto. They only sat on $148M in payroll and could afford both. The fans would be happy with one. Soto would be the bigger splash, but snagging the No. 1 starter may help them more.
- Who will sign Pete Alonso? I’ll keep this short and sweet…The Boston Red Sox. He is the perfect right-handed bat for Fenway Park. The team is too left-handed heavy, and Alonso will fit perfectly in the middle of that lineup.
The question is, will owner John Henry spend the money? He has gone from having the league’s no. 1 payroll year after year to a sort of austerity plan. This past season, they fell out of the top 10 in payroll. The team only has $129M currently on the books ahead of the 2025 season. They have plenty of money to spend.
Alonso turned down a 7yr/$158M deal with the Mets. He’ll be entering his age 30 season in 2025 and will be looking for at least an eight-year deal north of $15M per year. The Sox should open the purse strings and snag the burly first baseman for 8yr/$220M, which is $27.5M per yr.
- Which team will be this year’s Kansas City Royals? For that matter, which team will be this: Royals, Orioles, Tigers, or Guardians? Heading into 2025, the Royals payroll is ranked 19th, the Orioles is 26th, the Tigers is 24th, and the Guardians is 22nd…and all four teams made the playoffs in 2024
The 2025 Cincinnati Reds will be a mid-market, mid-payroll team that makes the playoffs. To begin with, they signed future Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona to lead them. They have an exciting core of young talent that he’ll be able to get the most out of.
Also, they are in a division that isn’t filled with murderer’s row. For the most part, every team in their division has the same salary constraints. The Cubs are the biggest spenders, while the Brewers spend on par with the Reds, with the Pirates bringing up the rear, near the bottom of the league.
Last season, the team managed 77 wins, and I have to believe that the addition of Francona alone is worth four or five games, which gets them to .500. I also have to believe that upper management and ownership had to give him some assurances that they would spend a bit more to be as competitive as possible. I see the team getting into the mid-80s for victories, which will keep them in the playoff race for the entire year and give Red fans a full baseball season to root for. This past season, it took 86 wins in the AL to reach the playoffs and 89 wins in the NL.