It’s all about the skill set, the best matchups, and availability in week 18. Many players are resting, which can change things for both teams, and other players are chasing incentives that can earn them more money! Here are the must play guys this week!
Jared Goff, Lions
With the number one seed in the NFC on the line, expect Goff to have a huge game against a Vikings defense that has struggled against opposing quarterbacks. Look for him to throw for at least 280 yards and two touchdowns, as it’s a home game, and you know how well Goff does at home.
Sam Darnold, Vikings
Sam Darnold, who has made the Pro Bowl, now gets a chance to lead the Vikings to the number one seed if they can beat the Lions on Sunday night. The Lions pass defense has been suffering from tons of injuries, and Darnold has all the weapons in the world to take advantage of this opportunity. Look for him to throw for close to 300 yards and at least two touchdowns.
Baker Mayfield, Bucs
Baker has an incentive in his contract that pays him $500k if he finishes in the top ten of yards per passing attempt. Against the Saints, he should have no problem completing long passes and is a lock for at least 250 yards and two touchdowns.
Bo Nix, Broncos
Nix started out slowly against Cincinnati but came on like gangbusters in the fourth quarter and almost pulled out the road victory last week. This week is a do-or-die game for Denver to make the playoffs against a Chiefs team that is resting its starters. Nix should be good for 230 passing yards and at least one touchdown, and maybe even one rushing as well.
Geno Smith, Seahawks
Even though the Seahawks are out of playoff contention, Smith is going to get $2,000,000 if he throws for at least 186 yards in this game. The Rams are benching their top players as they are making a playoff push, so look for Smith to get about 220 yards and two touchdowns.
Bijan Robinson, Falcons
The Falcons are clinging on to any playoff aspirations, and to get there, they’re going to have to defeat Carolina. Carolina’s defense has been awful against the run all season long, and Robinson should have no problem going for about 125 all-purpose yards and at least one touchdown.
Bucky Irving, Bucs
The Bucs are trying to seal the deal on the NFC South crown and should be able to do that against New Orleans. The Saints have not been able to stop the run for the past few weeks, and Irving has been playing at a terrifically high level. Look for him to get 95 yards rushing and a touchdown.
D’Andre Swift, Bears
This feels like a bit of a reach but Swift is 106 rushing yards from getting from 1000 on the season. Considering Bears’ fans have had so little to root for, the team might be trying hard to make him a 1,000-yard rusher.
Blake Corum, Rams
Rams head coach Sean McVay has already said that Kyren Williams will not be playing. This should give the team a great chance to see what Corum can do if given a full load of carries. I think he ends up getting 20 touches and 100+ all-purpose yards, and a touchdown.
Ray Davis, Bills
There’s no way the Bills will risk James Cook getting injured, so this will be a Ray Davis game. The Patriots have not been able to stop the run all season long, and Davis’s low to the ground contact style will be very difficult for them to stop. Look for him to get 80 yards and a touchdown.
Mike Evans, Bucs
Simply put, if Mike Evans gets 5 catches for 85+ yards, he’s going to make $3,000,000. I think I might bet $3,000,000 that he’s going to achieve that this weekend against the Saints.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions
The Vikings are the worst team against opposing slot receivers in the league. The Lions desperately want to be the number one seed and get the BYE, which will come in handy with all their injuries. This feels like one of those games where St. Brown goes for 10 catches for 120 yards and two touchdowns.
Malik Nabers, Giants
I’m not sure how badly Nabers wants to have the rookie receptions record, but if he does, the Giants will certainly feed him to his heart’s content against the Eagles, who are resting their starters. Look for him to get about 10 catches for 90 yards and a touchdown.
Courtland Sutton, Broncos
if Sutton gets 82 receiving yards, he will receive a $500,000 bonus. The Broncos need the game badly, and the Chiefs are not going to be playing with their starters. Feels like an easy one to me.
Jordan Addison, Vikings
If the Lions want to have any chance of winning, they’re going to have to do whatever they can to limit Justin Jefferson, which should allow Addison to make some big plays downfield. The Lions often seem to make their biggest mistakes on deep passes. Look for Addison to have at least 85 yards receiving and a touchdown.
Brock Bowers, Raiders
The Raiders season has been an unmitigated disaster, except for the fact that Bowers has been one of the most spectacular young tight ends to come into the league in decades. He is four receptions ahead of Malik Nabers to set the rookie reception record. If the Raiders want him to get the record, the Chargers won’t be able to stop him. Lock Bowers in for 8 catches for 89 yards and a TD.
Zach Ertz, Commanders
Ertz can make $750,000 if he catches 9 passes for 90 yards and two touchdowns. I’m not sure that any of that is going to happen, especially because the Commanders already have a playoff spot lined up, but it might be fun to watch. I’ll take a chance on him getting at least 4 catches for 45 yards and one touchdown.
Brenton Strange, Jaguars
Teams have picked on the Colts all season, as their defense against opposing tight ends has been atrocious. Strange was MIA in Week 17 against Tennessee, but that was more about Tennessee being very strong against opposing tight ends than Strange not playing well. Look for him to score this week.
Kyle Pitts, Falcons
At the end of last week’s game against Washington, Michael Penix found Pitts for the game-tying touchdown. This week Pitts faces a Panthers defense that has struggled all season long against opposing tight ends. Could he get back-to-back touchdowns? I say yes.
Will Dissly, Chargers
Dissly is just rounding into form after missing a few weeks on IR. This should be a game where he gets about four or five receptions for 50 yards against a Raiders defense that has struggled all season against opposing tight ends.