Pat Freiermuth, Steelers: Freiermuth is my favorite play at tight end in Week 11. The Ravens have allowed the most receptions to opposing tight ends, the most targets to opposing tight ends, and the third most receiving yards to opposing tight ends. In short, the Ravens have been an unmitigated disaster on defense, and Freiermuth is a very reliable receiver who runs terrific routes. I think he’s got a great shot for 60 yards and a touchdown.
Dawson Knox, Bills
I’ve listed Knox because Kincaid is out with a knee injury. The Chiefs have allowed the most yards to opposing tight ends, so the matchup is excellent. Dawson Knox has a great rapport with Josh Allen and is very effective in the red zone. I’m thinking that Knox will have 50-60 yards receiving and will score a touchdown.
Jonnu Smith, Dolphins
The Raiders have allowed an 82.8% catch rate to opposing tight ends. The Dolphins love to throw Smith short passes that he can make into larger gains. Look for Tua to throw Smith about four or five quick passes, which will allow him to beat opposing linebackers in space. Moreover, the Raiders have allowed the third most touchdowns to opposing tight ends so there’s a good chance that Jonnu finds the end zone as well.
Will Dissly, Chargers
The Cincinnati Bengals have allowed the fifth most targets to opposing tight ends, but even more importantly, they have the worst DVOA versus opposing tight ends. I think Dissly is going to have about 6 or 7 targets for 60 yards and still be overlooked, especially because the Chargers receivers like Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston have been so good recently.
Tyler Conklin, Jets
I pick on the Colts pass defense pretty much every week because they allow a ton of touchdowns to opposing tight ends (third most in the league) and they have the fourth worst DVOA against opposing tight ends too Conklin often goes overlooked by opposing teams because defenders are concentrating more on Adams and Wilson. If the Jets are in the red zone, don’t be shocked to see Conklin wide open and celebrating scoring a touchdown.