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NFL Break-Out WRs For Week 11

Dr. Roto

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1 day ago

ATLANTA, GEORGIA – AUGUST 24: George Pickens #14 of the Pittsburgh Steelers leaps for a reception over Natrone Brooks #35 of the Atlanta Falcons during the first quarter of a preseason game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on August 24, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

George Pickens, Steelers: The Ravens have allowed the most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers, the most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers, and the second most receptions to opposing wide receivers. Moreover, they have the worst DVOA against WR1 in the league. You put all those things together, and it’s screaming out to play George Pickens in Week 11. I’ll be locking him in visionary style

Garrett Wilson, Jets

CLEVELAND, OHIO – SEPTEMBER 18: Garrett Wilson #17 of the New York Jets catches the ball for a touchdown while defended by Martin Emerson Jr. #23 of the Cleveland Browns during the second quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium on September 18, 2022 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)

The Colts have allowed close to 9 yards per target, which is one of the highest numbers in the league. They’ve also allowed the 7th most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. What this means is that big-play receivers can have great games against the Colts, so there is huge upside potential. Wilson is the guy who can take the top off the defense, and hopefully, Aaron Rodgers will recognize this and feature Wilson instead of Adams in a must-win game.

Courtland Sutton, Broncos

DENVER, CO – JANUARY 24: Wide receiver Courtland Sutton #14 of the Denver Broncos catches a pass on the field against the New England Patriots at Empower Field at Mile High on December 24, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

Two statistics that that caught my attention were that the Falcons allow a 70% catch rate to opposing wide receivers and that Atlanta has the second-worst DVOA against WR1 in the league. This basically tells me that the Falcons are allowing wide receivers to catch the ball in front of them to make sure that they don’t beat them deep. Sutton has been Bo Nix’s favorite target and I’m going to lock him in all my teams.

Cedric Tillman, Browns

HOUSTON, TX – DECEMBER 24: Cedric Tillman #19 of the Cleveland Browns runs across the field during an NFL football game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on December 24, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

I think people don’t realize that Tillman has been one of the top WR1 in fantasy football over the past few weeks. In Week 11 he gets the Saints, who have allowed the 4th most receiving yards against as well as the fourth most passing attempts against them. Tillman has been getting peppered with targets, averaging over nine targets over the last three games he’s played. I think he gets double-digit targets, 100 receiving yards, and a touchdown this week.

Jameson Williams, Lions

DETROIT, MICHIGAN – DECEMBER 11: Jameson Williams #9 of the Detroit Lions celebrates a touchdown during the first quarter of the game against the Minnesota Vikings at Ford Field on December 11, 2022 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images)

When we think about boom or bust players, Jameson Williams is the poster child. He’s highly inconsistent, but when he has that boom game, he can catch 4 passes for 105 yards and a touchdown, which is what’s going to help you win your fantasy matchups. I especially like when he plays at home in the Dome on the turf where his speed separates him from his competitors. I also like the fact that Jacksonville has the worst DVOA versus WR2 in the league. Put this all together, and it should mean a great game for Williams.

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