Brock Purdy, 49ers: In Week 10, Purdy had a terrific week against Tampa. Part of it was that the team had Christian McCaffrey back, part of it was that they were playing a team with a poor pass defense, and part of it is that they had the bye week to prepare and looked terrific. This week, they are back at home against a Seattle defense that has been leaky and a Seattle offense that likes to pass a lot. Put these two things together, and I think we’re looking at a game that could have a point total in the high 50s where Purdy is forced to throw and gets about 260 passing yards and at least two touchdowns.
Jared Goff, Lions
They always say that you can count on death and taxes well, I think you could add to that list to always count on Jared Goff playing at home. Jacksonville’s defense played surprisingly well last week, but I think that was as much of a failure of Sam Darnold as it was a success of their defense. Look for Goff to take some big shots downfield. Las Vegas has the Lions point total of over 30 points, which means that they expect them to score 4 touchdowns. I think Goff gets at least two in the air, along with 240 passing yards.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
Tua was this close to being out for the rest of the season when he tried to make a tackle on an interception return against the Rams. If I had to guess, I would think that his teammates would not be upset if he just didn’t bother going for the tackle so long as they could have him playing each week. I don’t normally like when West Coast teams like the Raiders play in early games on the road, so this feels like a spot where Miami can take advantage. If all goes well, we might be looking at a 280-yard passing week from Tua, along with two touchdowns.
Russell Wilson, Steelers
The worst pass defense in the league this year has surprisingly been the Baltimore Ravens. Every team has taken advantage of them, and the only thing that can stop that from happening this week is if Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith decides to revert back to his running ways like he did when he was the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. If Mike Tomlin can talk some sense into Smith, we should be able to see Russell Wilson attack the Ravens defense to the tune of 260 yards and possibly as many as three touchdowns.
Jameis Winston, Browns
I’m a firm believer in the narrative fantasy play. My favorite two narratives are the hometown narrative and the revenge narrative. When we think of Jameis Winston we think of him being a Tampa Bay Buccaneer. But as you may recall he went to the Saints and was the understudy for Drew Brees. When Brees retired, many thought that it would be Winston’s job. Instead, Dennis Allen, the head coach who hated Winston, pushed the team to give a few bags of money to Derek Carr, which has been an unmitigated disaster thus far. Look for Jameis to remind the Saints of what a mistake they made as he throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns.