Fastest Paced Games
#1 – Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens
First off, let’s address the elephant in the room and talk about what could be the most entertaining game of the year with the two highest-scoring teams in the league facing off! This one has the best mobile QB of our generation in Lamar Jackson, squaring off with the early Rookie of the Year candidate and who most resembles him in Jayden Daniels. Washington comes in at 31.0 points per game, while Baltimore is just below 30.0. The Ravens are 1st in Yards Per Game at 448, while the Commanders are 3rd at 393.
Both teams are efficient offensively, but both are bad defensively. You can dive into many stats on the defensive side of the ball like the Ravens have allowed the second most passing yards (1401 total / 280 per game) or the Commanders have allowed the most TDs (14), but anyway, you look at it both defensives have not been good. Commanders OC Cliff Kingsbury is setting records by running nearly 56% of the team’s offensive plays in No Huddle.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – NOVEMBER 28: Tight end Mark Andrews #89 of the Baltimore Ravens celebrates after catching a second half touchdown pass against the Cleveland Brownsat M&T Bank Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
It’s fascinating because that number alone drives their adjusted pace up into the top 10 (29.3), even though they do not rank highly in any other pace-related metrics. The Ravens are 2nd in Plays Run per game (65.6) and are 2nd best in red zone conversion, converting an impressive 75% of their opportunities. Speaking of efficient, both teams are not turning it over, Commanders come in with the 2nd fewest turnovers (3), while the Ravens check in at 3rd least in that category (4).
This Commanders defense is a top 5 favorable matchup for opposing QBs, RBs and WRs. The Ravens’ defense is a top 10 favorable matchup for opposing QBs, a top 2 matchup for opposing WRs and a top 5 matchup for opposing TEs. There are many good matchups all over the field for the skill guys in this one. This game also has an over/under point total of the week at 51.5.
DETROIT, MI – JANUARY 21: Jared Goff #16 of the Detroit Lions drops back to pass during an NFL divisional round playoff football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Ford Field on January 21, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
#2 – Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
This game is in the comfy confines of AT&T Stadium with the highest combined adjusted pace number of the week (27.4). The Lions are 5th in plays per game (64.3), 3rd in Points Per Game (26), and 3rd in Yards Per Game (397). Games involving the Lions have averaged a league-high 128.5 plays per game. The Cowboys are really pushing the pace. They are the fastest in Seconds/Snap (24.5), fastest in Adjusted Pace (26.2), 6th in plays per game (63.8) and 6th in Pass Percentage + Pass Rate Over Expected (63.3%).
They throw it a ton, coming in with a 64% pass percentage and running 41 passing plays per game on average while having the second lowest QB Pressure Percentage (26.3%), a good sign that their pass pro is holding up, and they will need it to against the Lions pass rush led by Aidan Hutchinson. Detroit’s defense struggles to stop WRs, while the Dallas defense has a hard time vs. the RB, which is both strengths of each offense. This game has the highest over/under point total of the week at 52.0.
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – DECEMBER 31: Jordan Love #10 of the Green Bay Packers looks to pass the ball in the fourth quarter of the game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
#3 – Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers
These teams have a combined adjusted pace time of 29.6, and both teams are in the top 12 in that category. The Packers are 8th in place run per game (62.8) and seconds per snap (27.6). They come in at 5th in Yards Per Game (376.6). Both defenses are getable in this one; the Cardinals’ defense is giving it up to opposing WRs and TEs, while the Packers’ defense is one of the most generous in the league and has difficulty stopping all the skill positions, including a top 5 matchup for opposing QBs. This game has an over/under point total of 47.5.