For some teams, Week 5 is the beginning of the end. For others, it’s the start of something promising, and for the rest, it’s just the continuation of the promise of preseason expectations. It is also the starting point when the market begins to correct itself.
It already happened on Thursday Night when the Chicago Bears went into DC and defeated the Washington Commanders who nearly defeated the defending NFC Champion Eagles the week before, in Philadelphia…we call those “reverse locks” in the gambling world. It is a game that looks so obvious and easy on paper, and then inexplicably goes the other way.
This week I’m looking at six games where I think a market correction will occur with the underdog not only covering but winning the game outright…here they are:
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (+2.5)
I love the home dog in this divisional matchup. Each team is 2-2, but based on tiebreakers, the Colts are in first place while the Titans are in last. Each team has given up about the same amount of points, but the Colts have averaged about six more points per game…and they’re coming off a loss. I like them to rebound at home. The +116 isn’t much of a premium, so you may as well snag the +2.5.
Houston Texans (+1.5) @ Atlanta Falcons
C.J. Stroud is really showing me something. He’s fourth among all QBs in QB rating, and the Texans find themselves in the tight AFC South, where every win can be the difference in making the playoffs or even winning the division. And, among their divisional rivals, they have the largest point differential at +17. They are on a two-game winning streak and building momentum and confidence. They’re also playing a Falcons team coming back from England, reeling from a convincing loss to the Jaguars.
New Orleans Saints (+1) @ New England Patriots
This is one of those reverse locks. The Patriots are coming off a terrible loss in Dallas, coming home to the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium. Normally this would be penciled in with a pen. But the Pats lost their two best defensive players in LB Matthew Judon and rookie CB Christian Gonzalez. The Saints are coming off a tough loss where they gave up over 20 points for the first time in 12 games. They are facing an offensively challenged Pats team, who they should keep under 20 points. And with Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara, they should get over 20 points themselves. I like the Saints in this spot…and if you’re feeling frisky, I like it to be a low-scoring game, under 39.5, similar to the Pats/Jets game that saw only 25 total points scored.
New York Jets (+2.5) @ Denver Broncos
Simply put, Denver is a bad team…regardless of their win last week. And, the Jets showed some fire in their belly. I think the connection between Zach Wilson to Garrett Wilson will continue this week, and I believe they will snag a road win in the Mile High City. I believe their offense is legitimate and will be able to easily keep Russell Wilson in check, which will make this a low-scoring game, staying under 43.5 points.
Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers
I said it earlier this week, if each team was undefeated I’d love the 49ers here. But Dallas already had their wake-up call, and they looked fantastic last week. That win may prove to have been against a paper tiger, and punch-drunk former champion, but it was still a Bill Belichick-led team, and the Cowboys manhandled them. Brock Purdy has to lose at some point in his career…doesn’t he? If you want to be safe, grab the +3.5, but a +154 Moneyline is a pretty nice ROI.
Green Bay Packers (+1.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders
When all is said and done, we may look back and realize the Lions are a really good team this year, and losing to them isn’t that bad of an indictment against your team. The Packers found that out last week, getting toyed with in Lambeau Field. The Raiders are just missing something. They don’t have their ground game going, and whether it’s Jimmy Garoppolo or Aidan O’Connell behind center, their overall offense has been ineffective. In four games, their point differential is -39, nearly 10 points per game. Jordan Love will do enough to give the Raiders their fourth consecutive loss and put HC Josh McDaniels on the chopping block….especially since Bears HC Matt Eberflus won in convincing fashion against the Commanders.