Knowing who to start and who to sit can make or break you fantasy football success every week. So here is a list of key players that you will have to make tough start/sit decisions on.
Start: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Folks, what can I say? I’m going back to the Murray well this week, even after the dud he laid at our feet in Week 1 of the playoffs. And he was in such a good spot, too, against the Patriots. To be fair, I did say he was boom or bust (unfortunately, I picked boom). Friends, the matchup this week is even better, and I have faith. If he could just find the endzone the numbers would be there, and this is as good a week as any. The Panthers are one of the best matchups for QBs, and the Cardinals need Murray to have a game to keep their playoff hopes alive. Cooper Rush just dropped 27+ on them, and I’m certain Murray can do at least that this weekend. Another juicy matchup next week with the Rams, so if Kyler does it here, we’re on cruise control next week, also.
Start: Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys
Speaking of Cooper! Lou and I were chatting a couple of weeks ago about Cooper and Aidan O’Connell (RIFP – rest in fantasy peace) having pudding schedules coming up and if I was a moron for considering these guys over Purdy and Herbert. Well, folks, it turns out we were on to something. While O’Connell went down to injury against the Bucs, Cooper has been very palatable. In fact, if you go back five matchups, Rush has finished below 20 only once, highlighted by a 27-point, three-touchdown game on Sunday. This week it’s the Bucs who have been better as of late and have held their own against “lesser” QBs (DeVito, O’Connell, etc.). I’m not concerned about the matchup, though, as I expect a lot of offense here, and Rush is going to do enough to factor for us (Rico and CeeDee also).
Sit: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Did someone say Purdy? And he flashed (QB7) in Week 14 against a tough Bears team, right? Got our hopes up, and then Thursday night happened (and almost cost my season). Sigh. Purdy has been super sporadic since the bye week, and I sort of get it, what with the decimation of the RB group and inconsistency of the WR group? Kittle has been his steady, but it just hasn’t been enough for Brock or us. Purdy’s last five weeks – QB31, QB7, QB32, QB12, QB5. Do you want to trust that against a Miami defense that ranks first on the season and nearly top 10 in the last four weeks? Can you trust it may be the better question. I can’t. I won’t. I refuse.
Sit: Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Did someone say Goff? Kidding, no one said it. And most certainly, you won’t see him in sit column this week after dropping nearly 500 yards and five touchdowns on the Bills. Except here. Me. I’m recommending him as a sit this week. Last week, I said sit Jalen and Baker, and we know how that turned out. But here I am recommending another stud as a sit. And the same thing as last week – if you go the other way, I would understand. And it may not be an absolute sit, but it definitely has big potential for a floor game. Look what the Bears just did to Darnold from a fantasy perspective – QB20 and barely 12 points. I know the aforementioned Brock dropped a QB7 on them, but the Bears continue to be one of the best defenses against QBs for fantasy scoring. During the Chicago Bears eighth straight loss on Monday, they flashed a graphic that I think is worthy of notice – the Bears have (had) the fourth-highest pressure rate in the league. Now, this makes sense because pressured QBs don’t play as well (a select few do), which has been the case for teams playing the Bears all season. This is a matchup consideration against a stingy unit in a bitterly cold game (real feel in the 20s), in a game where a heavy dose of Jahmyr Gibbs makes too much sense. Remember what I said – floor game.
Start: Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Real quick – I just want to thank Robinson for hitting that 100-yard bonus for me and squeaking me into Round 2 of the fantasy playoffs. Thanks to Brock (mentioned above), I was in a tight spot. Moving on. I’m going to be counting on him again this week, and mannnnnn, he’s got a fantastic matchup against the Giants. Granted, Derrick Henry was just held in check by these very Giants, but my theory says the game script factored here – the Ravens passing game was so effective Henry wasn’t needed. The Falcons passing game has been far from effective, and they’re starting the rookie Michael Penix Jr. this week, so I expect a HUGE dose of Bijan. You were starting him anyway; I’m just here to reinforce that thought. Potential for RB1 on the week is real.
Start: James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
James Conner has been one of the most consistent RBs in the league for us, and he’s surging when we need him the most. RB10 on the season, his floor is sturdy, and he’s capable of dropping 25+ in the right matchups. Enter the Carolina Panthers. Worst defense against the position all year and not much better than that here lately. This offense has leaned on Conner heavily the past three games (averaging 20+ touches during that span), and Trey Benson has been an afterthought. And he has the Rams next week? SWOOOOOOOOOON. Start him with confidence, as he has the potential to be a top 5 back this week.
Sit: Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
Seems counterintuitive to recommend a sit against one of the league’s most generous units to RBs, but that’s exactly what is happening. And it’s less of a knock on Rhamondre and more of a nod to what figures to be a super negative game script. Josh Allen is on another level, and the Bills are favored by more than a touchdown (-7.5 feels too low to me). You may be tempted, but consider that Stevenson has only finished above RB23 once in the last five games, which included some tasty matchups as well. This game is going to get away from the Patriots early, and the Pats will be throwing to compensate. I suppose Rhamondre could see an elevation in targets; I just don’t think it will be enough.
Sit: Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
I want to love Najee Harris, I do. But he just continues to disappoint me on a fantasy level, week over week, year over year. Three weeks ago in Cincy, he looked like a stud (22 touches, 129 yards, a score – RB3 on the week). And Weeks 6 through 11 weren’t terrible. But as is the case with Harris, it’s the inconsistent results – and now isn’t the time for those shenanigans. Six finishes outside the top 30, another two outside the top 20, and only two top 10s all year. The floor is fairly sturdy, so if that’s what you need, go get it. The Ravens are really good against running backs and have been all season, so the matchup isn’t great. Add to all this a game script where the Steelers are chasing all game, and it doesn’t bode well for Harris. Unless he is all you’ve got, sit him on the bench for this one (and next week, also – KC).
Start: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
JSN has taken over as WR1 for the Seahawks, plain and simple. Since Week 6, JSN leads the Seattel WR room in snap share, targets, route participation, and, most importantly for us – fantasy production. There really is no debate, apologies to Metcalf owners (myself included). This week, Smith-Njigba gets one of (if not the) most generous defenses to opposing wideouts, giving up 30 points or more to the position in 11/14 weeks (even the Bears dropped 42.6 on them). The game has huge playoff implications for both, so expect some fireworks here (I actually think the O/U is low for this one, but I’m no Ace Rothstein). As long as Geno stays upright and gets the ball out (Vikings have a positive pass-rush advantage score, per PFF) JSN will be a sturdy play with space for a top-15 performance.
Start: Malik Nabers, New York Giants
ESPN ran an interesting article on CB/WR shadows, and I absolutely agree with their assessment of the forthcoming Nabers/A.J. Terrell matchup this weekend. The article notes the success other receivers have had v. Terrell, and the numbers don’t lie – an average of 17.0 points per game to the shadowed wideout (including Justin Jefferson going 7-132-2 against him). PFF agrees with ESPN and I, giving Nabers an 87.8 grade against the matchup this week. And on the whole, Atlanta has been horrible against the position all season, and I truly expect more of the same here. As of right now, it looks like Drew Locke will be under center Sunday, though I’m not sure it matters. Nabers is second in the NFL in targets (CeeDee Lamb), and it really hasn’t factored as to who the QB is (he’s averaging 12 targets per game in his last four). He won’t contend for WR1, but his 15-17 points will for sure play for us.
Sit: Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco 49ers
Deebo was a sit reco in Week 14, and I’m bringing him back this week. He’s just been soooooo disappointing for us (and the 49ers), considering when Aiyuk went down, he had a real opportunity to step up. Samuel Sr. hasn’t finished above WR54 since Week 10, and friends, that was a measly WR25. I could regurgitate all the reasons I listed in Week 14, but I won’t. He’s been brutal for weeks now, his target share has dropped to 17.8%, he’s trailed Jauan Jennings in snap share pretty much all year, and the finishes just aren’t there for us. If you’re contending for the ship, do it without Deebo.
Sit: DJ Moore, Chicago Bears
Regular readers of this column know I have a huge problem with inconsistent players, regardless of the fault of inconsistency. Such is the case with DJ Moore, who has been elite at times (three top 10’s), but mostly leaves us wanting/needing more. Outside those top 10 finishes, he’s only finished inside the top 30 once all season. And I know you know, but this Bears offense is brutal. BRUTAL. And it’s just too much of a gamble in the fantasy playoffs on any of their pass catchers – Rome Odunze (whom I love), Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet (see below), and others. They tried to work him in Monday night, but it’s abundantly evident they are only using him on screens, and short-yardage plays (including runs). The matchup screams WR production, but this isn’t a group we can count on if we want to still be playing next week.
Start: Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers
It’s not a great matchup for Pat, per se, as the Ravens have been much better against the position in the last month. Freiermuth has been very productive with Pickens out, and it looks like that might be the case this weekend. Russell Wilson clearly has a connection with Freiermuth, who has at least 59 yards and/or a touchdown in four straight. And to be clear, he struggled against these Ravens back in Week 11, so there is space for a floor game in this one. In a game where I expect DangeRuss to be throwing, it’s entirely plausible that 6-8 of them targets go Freiermuth’s day, along with another touchdown. That’s my no-so-bold prediction. Top 12 is where I have Pat this week.
Start: Chig Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans
Chig looked like a bonafide tight end last week against the Bengals – 10 targets, 8 receptions, and 59 yards – good enough for TE7 on the week. And it was only three short weeks ago that Chig was also TE7 for us (albeit on a 70-yard touchdown). And I’m going against my inconsistency theory here and playing a hunch. It’s looking like Rudolph will be the starter on Sunday, which is kind of a good thing for Okonkwo, and this matchup couldn’t be any better for them. The Colts have been very generous to the position all season, including 20+ points per game and three touchdowns allowed in the last two matchups. Same as with Pat above, not saying this will be TE1 territory, but the top 12 seems very realistic.
Sit: Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
The NFL is all about situations and opportunities, it really is. Travis Kelce, Brock Bowers, Sam LaPorta, etc., are all in fantastic situations for a TE based on system and personnel. Others find themselves with opportunities due to injuries – Cade Otton, Jonnu Smith, Pat Freiermuth, etc., all excelled when given the opportunity. I often wonder, as a Bears fan, why we don’t properly utilize Kmet. He’s a gifted athlete and has flashed when given targets. Put Kmet on the Chiefs in place of Kelce with a QB who believes in him and feeds him. Is it too far off to think Kmet could be top five in that scenario? Sigh. And I digress. Kmet isn’t in the best system for him, and the results have followed. He’s only been targeted – targeted – four times in the past three games and only once in the previous two. As if it mattered past that, the Lions have been phenomenal against the position all year. Kmet is an obvious no this week, and next, and the week after that.
Sit: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Pitts has been featured here multiple times, and rightfully so. He hasn’t had a week that’s mattered for us since Week 8 (TE2), and finished routinely outside the top 24 during that span. He was great in Weeks 5-8, but since then, it’s been Bust City. And he’s an enigma, no doubt. But maybe he’s like Kmet above – in the wrong situation. I have to think he, too could benefit from a team or system switch. But that isn’t happening before Week 16, as much as we would like it to. Wait. WAIT A MINUTE! COUSINS ISN’T STARTING? REPLACED BY A ROOKIE? IS THERE HOPE? Maybe. I’m not sure whether to upgrade or downgrade the Atlanta pass catchers with Penix under center. On the one hand, Cousins has been so brutal that they’re benching him regardless of payroll, so it has to be an upgrade, right? On the other, an untested (albeit talented) rookie is getting a look in a pivotal game for the team who could be so overwhelmed he busts in his first action. Flip a coin on that one. Pitts could be a bit of a boom but could also be a sensational bust… in the fantasy playoffs. Nope. Nuh-uh. Not for me.