Honorable mention Start: Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG), Christian McCaffrey (SF), Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS)
Honorable mention Sit: Nick Chubb (CLE), Rico Dowdle (DAL), Tony Pollard (TEN)
Start: David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
As a Bears fan, two things disgust me (just two?) – seeing David Montgomery in a Lions uniform (really any uniform other than the navy and orange) and that Detroit has two top 12 RBs on the roster. Regardless of my pettiness, both backs have been fantastic for us this season. Montgomery is RB12 on the year and has finished outside the top 24 at the position only once in 10 games. He’s a touchdown BEAST, which is the heart and soul of his value, but he throws in decent rushing yardage to go along with 2-3 catches every game as a bonus. The Colts are susceptible to good running backs, especially ones that catch passes also, so I love the matchup. With an O/U north of 50, I expect Montgomery to kick in with another two-TD performance this week.
Start: Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
Kenneth Walker III is a STUD. Read it again. PFF grades him higher than all other backs except Bijan Robinson and Derrick Henry. With the Buffalo game being the exception (script), he’s presented no worse than a stable floor all season – 11+ plus in all games not played against the Bills. The main thing that limits him is opportunity, as he’s only toted the rock more than 20 times twice this season. This week, he gets the Arizona Cardinals, who have been a dumpster fire against the run this season, giving up 40 points or more on three occasions (most in the league). They have, however, been better recently, handling the likes of D’Andre Swift, JK Dobbins, and Breece Hall. My biggest factor here is in the trenches – PFF gives Seattle a +20 advantage score against the Cardinals, which is on par with the weeks where Arizona was gouged. Another game with a big O/U (notice a trend?) puts Walker III in a position to have a huge game.
Sit: Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings
This goes against my philosophy of attacking matchups, but hear me out. Yes, the Bears are bad against the run, and yes, they’ve been especially terrible this past month (including rushing QBs). This has more to do with Jones’ current situation. In what has turned into a bonafide timeshare, Jones has seen his snap count decrease significantly over the past two weeks – from 75% or higher to just barely over 50%. The recipient of the lost volume – Cam Akers, who hasn’t been super efficient with the touches but is getting them regardless. My guess is this is workload management, as several outlets report injury history and wear/tear as concerns. It also doesn’t help that he may be in somewhat of a doghouse with Kevin O’Connell. The Bears played inspired football this past Sunday, and this game is in Soldier, so there’s space for them to stiffen up against the run as well.
Sit: Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
As of this writing, we’re not certain Pacheco is going to lace ‘em up Sunday against Carolina, but he’s definitely trending in that direction. If/when he does, this is your reminder not to get too excited. I don’t like first-games-back after lengthy injury absences, and there is history and science behind it – especially with leg injuries. Pacheco suffered a fractured fibula and ligament damage back in Week 2, and has been on IR since. He has been designated for return, and all reports suggest he’ll hit the field this Sunday in Carolina. Be warned – returning to the field will take time to acclimate. Absolutely expect a limited workload as they ease Pacheco back in, and very realistically expect a timeshare ROS with Kareem Hunt (who’s been fantastic) sprinkled with some Carson Steele. And damn… this matchup is just about as tasty as you can get.