The New York Mets and the San Diego Padres have moved on to the National League Division Series starting on Saturday. The Mets won their win-or-go-home game three in Milwaukee in dramatic fashion, trailing, heading into the final inning before Pete Alonso hit a HR to give them a lead that they would not relinquish. The Padres swept the Atlanta Braves and got good pitching and timely hitting. The Padres are one of the strongest non-division winners to be in the postseason in quite some time. The Mets now move on to face the Philadelphia Phillies, and the Padres head to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers.
Mets vs. Phillies
This is a big divisional rivalry between the Mets and Phillies. The Phillies come into the series with high expectations after winning the National League East division and having been to the National League championship in each of the past two seasons. The Mets squeezed into the playoffs, needing an extra day of the regular season just to win one game of a doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – JULY 9: Zack Wheeler #45 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch in the top of the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citizens Bank Park on July 9, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
The Phillies were the best team in baseball through the first four months and cruised to the division crown. They are a World Series favorite thanks to their two aces, Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler. They also have some heavy hitters, particularly Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. They have a strong bullpen as well, although they have struggled at times recently. The Phillies are going to need their superstars to step it up in this series if they want to get to the NLCS for a third straight season. They seem to be a team built for the playoffs, so only time will tell if they truly are.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JUNE 26: Francisco Lindor #12 of the New York Mets reacts after scoring against the New York Yankees during the third inning at Citi Field on June 26, 2024 in the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)
The Mets are a gritty team. They are led by SS Francisco Lindor and slugging 1B Pete Alonso. Lindor put up an MVP-caliber season in 2024 and hit a huge HR against the Braves on Monday to send the Mets to the playoffs. For the Mets to have success in the series and keep their magic going, they will need to get great starting pitching from guys like Luis Severino and Sean Manaea, who have been key for them down the stretch. They are going with Kodai Senga in game one of the series, and if he is able to out-duel Zack Wheeler, the Mets can take control of the series. As good as the Mets have played recently, the Phillies should still be considered the heavy favorites here.
Padres vs. Dodgers
This is another division rivalry, similar to the Mets and the Phillies, this time coming in the NL West. Although the Dodgers won the division, the race between them and the Padres was close down the stretch, and the Padres had a chance to claim the division over the Dodgers in the final week of the season. Although they came up short, they have been playing really good baseball and have been the best team in the National League since the beginning of August.
SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA – MARCH 20: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits a single in the 3rd inning during the 2024 Seoul Series game between Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres at Gocheok Sky Dome on March 20, 2024 in Seoul, South Korea. (Photo by Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images)
On paper, during the regular season, the Dodgers were the better team and finished with the better record. The Dodgers offense is led by NL MVP favorite Shohei Ohtani, and he is backed up by former MVPs Mookie Betts and Freddy Freeman. The Dodgers issue is in their starting rotation. They don’t have Tyler Glasnow or Clayton Kershaw. Yamamoto and Jack Flaherty will have to pitch lights out if the Dodgers are going to advance. They also need to go deep into games because the Dodgers bullpen, despite having some good arms, is not deep.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – JULY 14: Fernando Tatis Jr. #23 and Manny Machado #13 of the San Diego Padres react after a home run by Machado during the sixth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on July 14, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
I actually think the Padres can pull off the upset here and that they should actually be favored. They have much more reliable starting pitching with Michael King, Dylan Cease, Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish. They have three elite arms in the back end of their bullpen: Jason Adam, Tanner Scott, and Robert Suarez, and they have a terrific lineup, too. Manny, Machado, Fernando Tatís Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Luis Arraez, and sensational rookie OF Jackson Merrill can all make a big impact.
The series should be tight. Either team could win it and make a run to the World Series. I am choosing the San Diego Padres, who are looking to knock off the Dodgers for the second time in the past three seasons in the playoffs